1047 14th St #31 · Thermalito, CA 95965

$32,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1964 Est $23k · 42% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come by and check out this stunningly updated mobile home situated in a charming 55+ senior community located on the west side of town! It features fresh paint and new appliances! This two-bedroom, one-bathroom home features a covered deck, a parking spot, a fenced yard, and a shed! With plenty of space to possibly start your own garden or let your dog out to explore the yard, this home is here waiting for you to make it yours!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Updated mobile home
• Fenced yard

Tags

• UPDATED MOBILE HOME
• COVERED DECK
• FENCED YARD
• PARKING SPOT
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing for cash offers; Mobile home to remain with sale; Property located in a flood zone; As-is sale; Senior community disclosures apply
• Financial info: Land lease (annual lease applicable)
• HOA & community: Senior park community (Chateau Mobile Home Estates); Clubhouse available; Manager approval required to purchase; Association contact available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; One total parking space plus one open other space
• Security: Resident manager
• Utilities: On-site sewer; On-site water
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Single story
• Construction: Aluminum skirt; Manufactured home construction; Kaufman/Broad manufacturer; Manufacture date: 01/01/1964
• Exterior features: Covered patio with awning; Deck(s); Chain link fence; Shed on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range/Oven; Range hood; Laminate countertops; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower and tub
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Turnkey condition; Ground-level entry with steps; Awning windows; Window blinds
• Laundry & utility: Community laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Cap rate 34.0% vs local median 3.6% in Thermalito — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,221 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.80%
• DSCR: 5.40
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $22,550
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1047 14th St #29	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	500 (-9%)	13mo	$20,500	$41	67
1047 14th St #1	0.07mi	2/2.0	600 (+9%)	22mo	$18,750	$31	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 98.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $40,464
• Equity at exit: $4,771

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.09×
• Total profit: $90,382
• Equity at exit: $2,767

Cash invested: $8,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95965

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $32,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,000
• Closing costs: $960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 431-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $32,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,792
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$931
• Taxable income: $8,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,129
• After-tax cash flow: $6,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Thermalito

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1221
• US rank: #26164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thermalito, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,181
• Household income: $53,198
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.76%
• Current HPI: 317.0277
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $32,000 TheMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $36,500 CRMLS