1816 4th Ave · Watervliet, NY 12189

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,079 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1930 2,613 sqft lot $176/sqft · 15% below area Est $223k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming and affordable starter home in the heart of Watervliet! Many recent improvements include a new roof (2024), new HVAC (2023) and new windows in (2022). Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath, this cozy property offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and potential. Enjoy a small, easy-to-maintain yard ideal for relaxing or entertaining, plus a detached garage in the rear for added storage. Ample street parking in front provides convenience for guests and everyday living. With its inviting character, manageable size, and convenient location close to shopping, restaurants, schools, and major highways, this home is a fantastic opportunity for first-time buy

Key facts

• Ample street parking
• Convenient location
• Detached garage

Tags

• SMALL EASY TO MAINTAIN YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• AMPLE STREET PARKING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; First-floor entry
• Construction: Aluminum siding and drywall construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Crawl space basement with exterior entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#51 in NY, #786 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Watervliet City School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #524 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Watervliet Elementary School (math 29% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,516 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 661 students, 72% FRL); Watervliet Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 684 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 73 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,085 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,752
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -14.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Andrewsville Ct	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,061 (-2%)	9mo	$144,000	$136	76
205 14th St	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,017 (-6%)	1mo	$210,000	$206	74
201 15th St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,116 (+3%)	3mo	$225,000	$202	71
1329 2nd Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,088 (+1%)	13mo	$165,000	$152	70
1918 7th Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-7%)	4mo	$180,000	$180	70
1636 9th Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-7%)	1mo	$210,000	$210	70
1506 5th Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	996 (-8%)	8mo	$155,000	$156	70
1337 2nd Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,028 (-5%)	3mo	$82,978	$81	68
2321 10th Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,136 (+5%)	2mo	$235,000	$207	64
30 Andrewsville Ct	0.31mi	2/1.0	974 (-10%)	10mo	$169,000	$174	61
1321 6th Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,224 (+13%)	7mo	$220,000	$180	53
14 State Street St	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,239 (+15%)	11mo	$240,000	$194	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-36,131
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,141
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12189

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,459/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $157,085

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-132	+0% $-186	+5% $-240	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-252	+0% $-186	+5% $-119	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-137	base $-186	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1908 4th Ave Watervliet, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,375	$1.96	45d	1	0.08mi
1534 5th Ave #1 Watervliet, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	45d	1	0.18mi
1513 5th Ave Unit 2 Watervliet, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	16d	1	0.24mi
1417 7th Ave Unit 2 Watervliet, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	16d	1	0.33mi
2413 6th Ave Unit 1 Watervliet, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,550	$1.72	45d	1	0.34mi
155 River St Unit 5D Troy, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	45d	1	0.48mi
155 River St Unit 3C Troy, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	16d	1	0.48mi
22 13th St Unit 1 Watervliet, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,475	$1.74	45d	1	0.50mi
22 13th St Watervliet, NY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,600	$1.78	45d	1	0.50mi
1273 Broadway Unit 1F Watervliet, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	45d	1	0.54mi
2327 12th Ave Unit 1 Watervliet, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	45d	1	0.57mi
132 1st St Unit 1 Troy, NY	2.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	23d	1	0.59mi
132 1st St Unit 2 Troy, NY	3.0	1.0	860	$2,100	$2.44	21d	1	0.59mi
2 River St Troy, NY	2.0	1.0–2.5	945	$2,650	$2.80	16d	6	0.60mi
17 State St Troy, NY	4.0	1.0–1.5	1810	$2,358	$1.30	16d	7	0.61mi
53-55 Congress St Troy, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	25d	1	0.64mi
65 3rd St Troy, NY	2.0	2.0	1185	$2,995	$2.53	25d	1	0.66mi
53 3rd St Troy, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	21d	1	0.68mi
5 Alden St Unit b Watervliet, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,299	$1.18	45d	1	0.70mi
5 Alden St Watervliet, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	21d	1	0.70mi
13 Fenimore Trace Apartments Watervliet, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,785	$2.16	16d	1	0.74mi
150 4th St Troy, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	0.75mi
104 4th St Unit 2 Troy, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	16d	1	0.76mi
77 Adams St Unit 12 Troy, NY	2.0	1.0	714	$1,166	$1.63	25d	1	0.77mi
77 Adams St Apt 17 Troy, NY	3.0	1.0	857	$1,811	$2.11	25d	1	0.77mi
77 Adams St Unit 8 Troy, NY	3.0	1.0	872	$1,509	$1.73	25d	1	0.77mi
1808 5th Ave Troy, NY	1.0	1.0	853	$1,450	$1.70	21d	1	0.84mi
1611 6th Ave Troy, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$3,000	$3.07	16d	28	0.86mi
124 Ferry St Troy, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	814	$1,914	$2.35	16d	10	0.86mi
306 3rd St Troy, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	25d	1	0.88mi
1520 6th Ave Troy, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1209	$1,100	$0.91	25d	8	0.88mi
2001 5th Ave Troy, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$2,650	$3.06	16d	10	0.89mi
50 Paine St Unit Second floor Green Island, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.89mi
323 2nd St #1 Troy, NY	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,950	$1.70	25d	1	0.90mi
334 4th St Troy, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	25d	1	0.92mi
2002 Federal St Troy, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	830	$3,450	$4.16	16d	51	0.92mi
31 Hudson Ave Unit 2 Green Island, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,125	$1.41	45d	1	0.93mi
355 4th St Troy, NY	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,750	$1.45	25d	1	0.95mi
356 3rd St Unit 2 Troy, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	16d	1	0.99mi
809 Broadway #2 Watervliet, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,625	$1.48	45d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-05-14
   listed $189,900 Active 688-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,459 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,459 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,459
• − Insurance: −$1,747
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$5,432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $-925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watervliet City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630210
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,276
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #5261
• State rank: #524 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watervliet

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #786

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watervliet, NY
• County: Albany County · 196,626 people
• City population: 18,656
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,656
• Household income: $65,276
• Rent vs Own: 60.3% rent · 39.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1224.0

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.16%
• Current HPI: 273.8109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $189,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,459 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.