1603 Man O War Dr · Garfield, TX 78617

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1977 1.18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

LOT 177 RIVER TIMBER MH S#TX437104A2249, House is Uninhabitable, Detached garage (approx. 336 sq ft will be removed) DO NOT ENTER HOME - not suitable for access, tear-down condition! Mature Trees, Flat/Corner Lot. Close proximity to Texas Music River Ranch, River Forest Haven, River Timber Farms, Webberville Park, Hyatt Lost Pines, Tesla -15 minutes to Austin Airport. The neighborhood backs up to the Colorado River. MH + land, Utililes avaible at the property: Water, Electric, Septic 500-year floodplain

Key facts

• Flat corner lot
• Detached garage
• Mature trees

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• MATURE TREES
• FLAT CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 spaces; Additional parking available; Two total parking spaces reported; Four covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected (septic tank); Water connected (private)
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Raised foundation; Property listed as tear down / value in land
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Shed(s); Storage; Workshop; Cleared lot; Corner lot; Few trees

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,159 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,895
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,970
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78617

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,355/yr (+$196/mo · 180.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$345
• After-tax cash flow: $4,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Garfield

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1159
• US rank: #20284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garfield, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,756
• Household income: $71,640
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 33% White 16% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.24%
• Current HPI: 192.3518
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $200,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,305 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.