1021 Oak St · Youngstown, OH 44506

$54,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1892 10,105 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1892
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.232 acres; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,048 (source: Realist)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Fixer condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Asphalt driveway/parking

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($735 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 7.0% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($22k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,076 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.48%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $30,541
• Equity at exit: $33,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $77,692
• Equity at exit: $59,247

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44506

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $735 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $241/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$154
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $419

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
633 Cassius Ave Unit 1 Youngstown, OH	2.0	1.0	807	$750	$0.93	20d	1	0.63mi
351 Lincoln Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0–5.0	3.0–5.0	1527	$699	$0.46	13d	10	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $54,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $54,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $54,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $241 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$308/yr (+$26/mo · 127.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$241
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$705
• − Management: −$705
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $2,217
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$532
• After-tax cash flow: $2,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 2,214
• Household income: $22,321
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 35.4

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 29% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 28%
• Common ancestry: German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 26% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 196.4579
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $54,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $241 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.