16301 Saint Thomas Church Rd · Croom, MD 20772

$375,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,253 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1900 27 ac lot $299/sqft · 21% below area Est $596k · 37% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Build your dream home on the pre-existing developed site on this stunning 27+ acre property adjacent to Merkle Wildlife Sanctuary. Enjoy recreation, potential wood crops, and beautiful wildlife habitat on this property. Buyer to verify development potential. Sold strictly as-is.

Key facts

• Wildlife habitat
• 27 acre property
• 27.01 acre lot

Tags

• 27 ACRE PROPERTY
• MERKLE WILDLIFE SANCTUARY
• WILDLIFE HABITAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Croom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#409 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 309 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,469 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.82%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,695
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -37.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-63,452
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-16,028
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20772

• Rents YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,817

Max offer price $331,356

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-35	-5% $-141	+0% $-247	+5% $-353	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-445	-5% $-346	+0% $-247	+5% $-148	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-58	-0.5pp $-152	base $-247	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $375,000 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2025-12-09
    listed $375,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Build your dream home on the pre-existing developed site on this stunning 27+ acre property adjacent to Merkle Wildlife Sanctuary. Enjoy recreation, potential wood crops, and beautiful wildlife habitat on this property. Buyer to verify development potential. Sold strictly as-is.

15. 2025-10-28
    historical
16. 2024-11-02
    listed $375,000 Active
17. 2024-10-31
    historical
18. 2024-06-13
    historical
19. 2023-10-19
    listed $450,000 Active
20. 2023-10-15
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,662 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,426/yr (+$119/mo · 115.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,405
• − Management: −$2,405
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$9,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,347
• After-tax cash flow: $-618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Croom

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #22764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Croom, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• City population: 52,768
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 54,319
• Household income: $139,403
• Rent vs Own: 10.7% rent · 89.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 524.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 78% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.63%
• Current HPI: 251.8236
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.80%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-02 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-31 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-19 Listed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-15 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2014): $1,236 · -37.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.