809 E Adams St · Itasca, TX 76055

$240,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,997 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1900 0.29 ac lot $80/sqft · 5% above area Est $228k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into charm and space you won’t find anywhere else at this price! This updated two-story offers 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and flexible living areas with original hardwood floors, two dining spaces, and dual living rooms. Enjoy outdoor living on a large quarter-acre lot with two covered porches and a fully fenced yard. Conveniently located near I-35 for a quick commute, this home blends timeless character with modern comfort—don’t miss it!

Key facts

• Two dining spaces
• Dual living rooms
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• TWO COVERED PORCHES
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• LARGE QUARTER-ACRE LOT
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TWO DINING SPACES
• DUAL LIVING ROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,061 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,808
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: 5.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $122,416
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $367,164
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,046/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,147

Max offer price $216,848

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    listed $240,000 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Step into charm and space you won’t find anywhere else at this price! This updated two-story offers 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and flexible living areas with original hardwood floors, two dining spaces, and dual living rooms. Enjoy outdoor living on a large quarter-acre lot with two covered porches and a fully fenced yard. Conveniently located near I-35 for a quick commute, this home blends timeless character with modern comfort—don’t miss it!

16. 2026-01-30
    historical
17. 2025-10-29
    price $255,000
18. 2025-08-20
    price $264,998
19. 2025-07-26
    price $264,999
20. 2025-07-10
    status Active
21. 2025-07-02
    historical Active Option Contract
22. 2025-06-03
    price $285,000
23. 2025-05-03
    price $269,000
24. 2025-03-06
    price $275,000
25. 2024-12-17
    price $280,000
26. 2024-11-20
    price $290,000
27. 2024-08-29
    price $299,900
28. 2024-07-29
    price $305,000
29. 2024-07-17
    listed $315,000 Active
30. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus
31. 2022-06-03
    soldstatus Closed
32. 2022-04-02
    status Pending
33. 2022-03-25
    historical Active Option Contract
34. 2022-03-03
    status Active
35. 2022-03-02
    status Pending
36. 2022-01-31
    status Pending
37. 2022-01-20
    listed Active Option Contract
38. 2022-01-20
    price $265,000
39. 2022-01-19
    listed $255,000
40. 2021-09-15
    soldstatus Sold
41. 2021-09-08
    soldstatus
42. 2021-07-26
    status Pending
43. 2021-07-23
    listed $120,000 Active
44. 2016-11-22
    soldstatus
45. 2001-10-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,046 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$4,046
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $264,998 NTREIS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $264,999 NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-07-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-17 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-03-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-03-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-20 Listed — NTREIS
• 2022-01-20 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2022-01-19 Listed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2021-09-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-07-23 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2016-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,046 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.