3979 Oak Terrace Rd · St. Augustine Shores, FL 32086

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,382 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1973 10,454 sqft lot $181/sqft · 5% above area Est $238k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, 3979 Oak Terrace Road offers a peaceful setting with room to enjoy Florida living. Situated on 0.24 acres with no HOA and high elevation, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking for privacy, outdoor space, and the freedom to make a property their own. A long paved driveway and carport welcome you in, while the partially fenced backyard provides space for pets, gardening, or weekend gatherings. The highlight of the property is the screened-in in-ground pool, creating the perfect spot to cool off and relax on warm St. Augustine afternoons.

Key facts

• High elevation
• Paved driveway
• Carport

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• NO HOA
• HIGH ELEVATION
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• CARPORT
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in St. Augustine Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W. Douglas Hartley Elementary (math 79% / reading 74%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 633 students, 42% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 20% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 407 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,677 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,500
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 5.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3999 Oak Terrace Rd	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (+5%)	22mo	$150,000	$104	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,424
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-23,917
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32086

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $390	-5% $319	+0% $249	+5% $178	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $162	+0% $249	+5% $335	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $312	base $249	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Angelo Ln Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,645	$1.83	15d	1	0.20mi
146 Phoenetia Dr St Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,900	$1.82	5d	1	0.34mi
250 Brainard Dr Unit A St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	25d	1	0.47mi
104 Laurel Wood Way #202 Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$2,000	$1.32	5d	1	0.87mi
901 Mariana Pl Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,175	$1.50	5d	1	0.88mi
332 Stone Arbor Ln Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,506	$1.46	9d	1	1.02mi
223 Osprey Marsh Ln Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,090	$1.25	25d	1	1.08mi
494 Romano St St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,899	$1.47	5d	1	1.11mi
968 Salzedo Ave Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1036	$2,100	$2.03	25d	1	1.11mi
520 Ray Edwards Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,500	$1.63	9d	1	1.20mi
3421 Red Cloud Trl Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	2.0	1524	$2,650	$1.74	25d	1	1.49mi
15 Cartagena Ct Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,850	$2.10	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Contingent- Accepting Backups 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Contingent- Accepting Backups 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Contingent- Accepting Backups 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Contingent- Accepting Backups 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   status $250,000 Contingent- Accepting Backups 62 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-03-30
   listed $250,000 Active 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, 3979 Oak Terrace Road offers a peaceful setting with room to enjoy Florida living. Situated on 0.24 acres with no HOA and high elevation, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking for privacy, outdoor space, and the freedom to make a property their own. A long paved driveway and carport welcome you in, while the partially fenced backyard provides space for pets, gardening, or weekend gatherings. The highlight of the property is the screened-in in-ground pool, creating the perfect spot to cool off and relax on warm St. Augustine afternoons.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,311/yr (+$109/mo · 171.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$300
• After-tax cash flow: $3,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Augustine Shores, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,855
• Household income: $76,512
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 306.2813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $250,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · +20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.