18400 Stellers Sea St · Elgin, TX 78621

$312,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,303 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2024 4,399 sqft lot $240/sqft · 47% above area Est $315k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Marek a spacious two-story home designed with your growing family in mind. The first floor features a generous open-concept layout, complemented by a luxurious master suite. Upstairs, you'll find a vibrant game room alongside three large bedrooms. Ample storage is a highlight, with multiple walk-in and linen closets throughout. The Marek is equipped with stylish upgrades at no extra charge, beginning with its striking curb appeal, which includes professional landscaping and an elegant lite front door. Inside, enjoy a chef-inspired kitchen adorned with granite countertops and premium stainless steel appliances. Plus, the home is fitted with smart technology, such as a programmable thermostat and a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, ensuring convenience and comfort!

Key facts

• Master suite
• Linen closets
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MASTER SUITE
• GAME ROOM
• AMPLE STORAGE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LINEN CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-560 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 24 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12777% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $213,899 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.68%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,659
• List price: $312,900
• Delta: -0.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18708 Golden Eagle Way	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,251 (-4%)	11mo	$250,000	$200	66
14500 Big Eagle Cv	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,251 (-4%)	12mo	$257,000	$205	64
104 Cider Creek Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (+13%)	7mo	$273,570	$186	40
114 Lavender Ln	0.56mi	5/2.0	1,437 (+10%)	20mo	$379,990	$264	40
224 Lavender Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (+13%)	10mo	$289,425	$197	39
129 Honeybee Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (+13%)	7mo	$273,165	$186	38
126 Daylily Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (+13%)	4mo	$274,100	$187	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $135,198
• Equity at exit: $281,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $427,172
• Equity at exit: $607,896

Cash invested: $87,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax from tax record: −$614 /mo · $7,365/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,063

Max offer price $213,899

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,225
• Closing costs: $9,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	0.25mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	0.35mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.44mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.48mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	0.48mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.48mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	1d	1	0.58mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: internetlandscaping

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $312,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $312,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $312,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $312,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $312,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    price $2,465
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $2,430
16. 2026-04-07
    historical $2,430

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Introducing the Marek a spacious two-story home designed with your growing family in mind. The first floor features a generous open-concept layout, complemented by a luxurious master suite. Upstairs, you'll find a vibrant game room alongside three large bedrooms. Ample storage is a highlight, with multiple walk-in and linen closets throughout. The Marek is equipped with stylish upgrades at no extra charge, beginning with its striking curb appeal, which includes professional landscaping and an elegant lite front door. Inside, enjoy a chef-inspired kitchen adorned with granite countertops and premium stainless steel appliances. Plus, the home is fitted with smart technology, such as a programmable thermostat and a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, ensuring convenience and comfort!

17. 2026-04-07
    listed $312,900 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Introducing the Marek a spacious two-story home designed with your growing family in mind. The first floor features a generous open-concept layout, complemented by a luxurious master suite. Upstairs, you'll find a vibrant game room alongside three large bedrooms. Ample storage is a highlight, with multiple walk-in and linen closets throughout. The Marek is equipped with stylish upgrades at no extra charge, beginning with its striking curb appeal, which includes professional landscaping and an elegant lite front door. Inside, enjoy a chef-inspired kitchen adorned with granite countertops and premium stainless steel appliances. Plus, the home is fitted with smart technology, such as a programmable thermostat and a Wi-Fi-enabled garage door opener, ensuring convenience and comfort!

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $2,430
19. 2026-04-02
    status Active
20. 2026-04-02
    price
21. 2026-02-21
    historical $2,455
22. 2026-02-16
    status Pending
23. 2026-02-13
    listed $2,455
24. 2026-02-13
    listed Active
25. 2026-02-10
    price
26. 2026-02-06
    status Active
27. 2025-11-24
    status Pending
28. 2025-11-23
    price
29. 2025-11-07
    listed Active
30. 2025-11-06
    historical $2,525
31. 2025-11-05
    listed $2,525
32. 2025-10-31
    status Active
33. 2025-10-14
    historical $2,525
34. 2025-10-14
    status Pending
35. 2025-10-09
    price
36. 2025-09-26
    listed $2,525
37. 2025-09-25
    listed Active
38. 2025-09-12
    price
39. 2025-08-29
    listed Active
40. 2025-08-05
    price
41. 2025-07-31
    listed Active
42. 2025-07-03
    listed Active
43. 2025-06-05
    listed Active
44. 2025-05-29
    price
45. 2025-05-16
    price
46. 2025-05-09
    listed Active
47. 2025-04-09
    listed Active
48. 2025-03-07
    listed Active
49. 2025-02-06
    listed Active
50. 2025-01-09
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,365 · $614/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,365 · $614/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,527
• − Property taxes: −$7,365
• − Insurance: −$1,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$9,103
• Taxable loss: −$12,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,940
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $2,465 ACTRIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed for Rent $2,430 ACTRIS
• 2026-04-07 Rental Removed $2,430 ACTRIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $312,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed for Rent $2,430 ACTRIS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-21 Rental Removed $2,455 ACTRIS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed for Rent $2,455 ACTRIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-24 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-06 Rental Removed $2,525 ACTRIS
• 2025-11-05 Listed for Rent $2,525 ACTRIS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-14 Rental Removed $2,525 ACTRIS
• 2025-10-14 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,525 ACTRIS
• 2025-09-25 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-06 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-11-14 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-10-18 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,365 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.