17001 Valley Ln · Grangerland, TX 77306

$209,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 2006 0.60 ac lot $162/sqft · 5% below area Est $221k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-bedroom home situated on over half an acre with no HOA or restrictions. This property offers the freedom and space you’ve been looking for, fully fenced and plenty of room to park a semi, RV, or work vehicles, making it ideal for drivers or anyone needing extra parking. The home features a brand-new roof and a cozy interior that’s ready for your personal touch. While the AC is not currently working, the home is priced accordingly, providing excellent value and opportunity. Enjoy the peaceful country setting with the convenience of easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roads. A great balance of comfort, space, and location.

Key facts

• Over half an acre
• Fully fenced
• Brand-new roof

Tags

• OVER HALF AN ACRE
• FULLY FENCED
• PLENTY OF ROOM TO PARK
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,436
• List price: $209,990
• Delta: -5.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14409 Sugar Pines Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,390 (+7%)	3mo	$200,000	$144	69
16785 Lonely Pines Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (+8%)	3mo	$184,900	$131	68
14416 Sugar Pines Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (+11%)	4mo	$199,000	$138	61
14171 Granger Pointe Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+8%)	0mo	$239,540	$170	56
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+10%)	0mo	$227,940	$160	52
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+10%)	0mo	$214,590	$150	51
14155 Granger Pointe Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+8%)	4mo	$226,890	$161	51
14304 Grey Pointe	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+10%)	2mo	$221,590	$155	51
14146 Granger Pointe Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+8%)	4mo	$251,540	$179	50
14301 Grey Pointe Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	3mo	$229,940	$160	50
14150 Granger Pointe	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	0mo	$213,790	$148	49
14312 Grey Pointe Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	2mo	$236,940	$165	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,501
• Equity at exit: $31,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $23,274
• Equity at exit: $18,156

Cash invested: $58,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,246/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $209,990

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $445	+0% $385	+5% $326	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $297	+0% $385	+5% $473	+10% $561
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $439	base $385	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,498
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	0d	13	0.52mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,990 Pending 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,990 Pending 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,990 Pending 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,990 Pending 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,990 Pending 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,990 Pending 198 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $209,990 Pending 197 DOM
8. 2026-05-16
   status Active 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom home situated on over half an acre with no HOA or restrictions. This property offers the freedom and space you’ve been looking for, fully fenced and plenty of room to park a semi, RV, or work vehicles, making it ideal for drivers or anyone needing extra parking. The home features a brand-new roof and a cozy interior that’s ready for your personal touch. While the AC is not currently working, the home is priced accordingly, providing excellent value and opportunity. Enjoy the peaceful country setting with the convenience of easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roads. A great balance of comfort, space, and location.

9. 2026-05-14
   historical 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   Charming 4-bedroom home situated on over half an acre with no HOA or restrictions. This property offers the freedom and space you’ve been looking for, fully fenced and plenty of room to park a semi, RV, or work vehicles, making it ideal for drivers or anyone needing extra parking. The home features a brand-new roof and a cozy interior that’s ready for your personal touch. While the AC is not currently working, the home is priced accordingly, providing excellent value and opportunity. Enjoy the peaceful country setting with the convenience of easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roads. A great balance of comfort, space, and location.

10. 2026-05-05
    price $209,990 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom home situated on over half an acre with no HOA or restrictions. This property offers the freedom and space you’ve been looking for, fully fenced and plenty of room to park a semi, RV, or work vehicles, making it ideal for drivers or anyone needing extra parking. The home features a brand-new roof and a cozy interior that’s ready for your personal touch. While the AC is not currently working, the home is priced accordingly, providing excellent value and opportunity. Enjoy the peaceful country setting with the convenience of easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roads. A great balance of comfort, space, and location.

11. 2026-02-04
    price $219,990 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom home situated on over half an acre with no HOA or restrictions. This property offers the freedom and space you’ve been looking for, fully fenced and plenty of room to park a semi, RV, or work vehicles, making it ideal for drivers or anyone needing extra parking. The home features a brand-new roof and a cozy interior that’s ready for your personal touch. While the AC is not currently working, the home is priced accordingly, providing excellent value and opportunity. Enjoy the peaceful country setting with the convenience of easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roads. A great balance of comfort, space, and location.

12. 2025-11-18
    price $224,990 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom home situated on over half an acre with no HOA or restrictions. This property offers the freedom and space you’ve been looking for, fully fenced and plenty of room to park a semi, RV, or work vehicles, making it ideal for drivers or anyone needing extra parking. The home features a brand-new roof and a cozy interior that’s ready for your personal touch. While the AC is not currently working, the home is priced accordingly, providing excellent value and opportunity. Enjoy the peaceful country setting with the convenience of easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roads. A great balance of comfort, space, and location.

13. 2025-11-13
    listed $209,990 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Charming 4-bedroom home situated on over half an acre with no HOA or restrictions. This property offers the freedom and space you’ve been looking for, fully fenced and plenty of room to park a semi, RV, or work vehicles, making it ideal for drivers or anyone needing extra parking. The home features a brand-new roof and a cozy interior that’s ready for your personal touch. While the AC is not currently working, the home is priced accordingly, providing excellent value and opportunity. Enjoy the peaceful country setting with the convenience of easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roads. A great balance of comfort, space, and location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,246 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,596/yr (+$133/mo · 71.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,246
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $1,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $4,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $209,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,246 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.