153-25 88th street 88th St Unit 5L · New York, NY 11414

$309,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Condo · 161 Days on market

Built 1960 ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.7/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS BEAUTIFUL 5TH FLOOR COOP IS A TURN KEY! WITH PLENTY OF SPACE AND LOTS OF CLOSETS. THIS UNIT HAS 2/3 BEDROOMS EAT IN KITCHEN/DINING AREA. BEAUTIFUL HARDWOOD FLOORS THROUGHOUT. MODERN KITCHEN W/ GRANITE COUNTER TOPS AND TILED BACK SPLASH. STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, PLENTY OF CABINETS, TILED KITCHEN FLOOR. SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM, MASTER BEDROOM IS BIG ENOUGH FOR KING SIZE FURNITURE AND THEN SOME. VERY LARGE AND GORGEOUS TERRACE W/ TILED FLOOR, PRIVACY ON BOTH SIDES. 3 AC'S ARE INCLUDED IN THE SALE. GARAGE AND OUTDOOR PARKING LOT (WAITLIST). ON SITE STORAGE AND BRAND NEW LAUNDRY FACILITIES IN MAIN LOBBY. THIS IS A BEAUTIFUL WELL-MAINTAINED BUILDING WITH 24 HOUR VIDEO SURVEILLANCE, ON S

Key facts

• Built 1960
• Listed 161 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.24%
• DSCR: 0.19
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -52.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-132,962
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.54×
• Total profit: $-220,056
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11414

• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,635/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$1,374
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-1,315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,442

Max offer price $118,664

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,102	-5% $-1,209	+0% $-1,315	+5% $-1,422	+10% $-1,529
Rent	-10% $-1,535	-5% $-1,425	+0% $-1,315	+5% $-1,206	+10% $-1,096
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,160	-0.5pp $-1,237	base $-1,315	+0.5pp $-1,395	+1.0pp $-1,477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
84-29 155th Ave Unit 5J Queens, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,500	$3.12	26d	1	0.10mi
8439 153rd Ave Unit 5A Howard Beach, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,500	$3.12	26d	1	0.11mi
149-09 84th St Unit 2 Howard Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	750	$3,200	$4.27	26d	1	0.29mi
9105 107th Ave Ozone Park, NY	1.0	1.0	648	$2,400	$3.70	20d	1	0.87mi
9512 108th Ave Ozone Park, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	13d	1	0.88mi
10215 Dunton Ct Howard Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	26d	1	1.21mi
97-56 105th St #2 Ozone Park, NY	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,811	$3.81	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   status Active
3. 2026-03-03
   listed $308,900 Active
4. 2026-01-16
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-06
   status Active
6. 2026-01-05
   status Pending
7. 2025-11-05
   status Active
8. 2025-11-05
   price $309,000
9. 2025-09-03
   price $325,000
10. 2025-07-28
    listed $339,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$4,635
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,666
• − Management: −$2,666
• − HOA: −$16,488
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$20,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,033
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,308
• Household income: $95,051
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 985.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.02%
• Current HPI: 206.6334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $308,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $309,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Listed $339,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid