159 Apple Ln · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to 159 Apple Lane, a single wide mobile home conveniently located in Mountain View Estates, an All Age Park on Santa Rosa Avenue near markets, restaurants, and shops. This inviting home features 1 bedroom in the back of the unit with a full bath next to it, and a living room open to the kitchen. It comes furnished with a kitchen table/chairs, a living room sofa, chairs and TV. The bedroom comes with a bed, dressers, and some built in drawers. All you need to do is buy the home and move in! What a great deal! The space rent is cheaper than an apartment! This home boasts 600 sq. ft. of usable living space plus a 2 car carport and a shed. Buyers need to get Park Approval.

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• Shed
• Full bath

Tags

• FULL BATH
• LIVING ROOM OPEN TO KITCHEN
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Mountain View Estates (park name)
• Financial info: Land lease in place; current land lease amount $1,260
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Single-wide; Skyline manufacturer; Skirted
• Construction: Updated/remodeled condition
• Exterior features: Covered, railed deck; Shed on property; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood; Microwave; Kitchen and dining space combined
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Furnished; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 39.2% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.66%
• DSCR: 6.24
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Apple Ln	0.06mi	1/1.0	624 (+4%)	7mo	$32,000	$51	85
115 Coachman Ln #19	0.51mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (+12%)	8mo	$120,000	$179	45
131 El Crystal Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	640 (+7%)	13mo	$122,500	$191	39
141 North Star Dr Unit A	0.69mi	2/1.0 (+1)	566 (-6%)	24mo	$98,500	$174	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $71,284
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.93×
• Total profit: $162,947
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $1,235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,998	$2.69	13d	10	0.21mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,604	$1.59	13d	1	0.46mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2134-211 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,075	$2.88	13d	1	0.72mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,171	$2.44	13d	27	0.72mi
2146 Bedford St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	13d	1	0.74mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,320	$2.48	13d	8	0.80mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,067	$1.71	13d	3	0.99mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	13d	1	1.02mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	13d	1	1.02mi
2025 Applejack Way Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,750	$3.50	13d	1	1.15mi
777 Aston Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	635	$1,749	$2.75	13d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 692-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $45,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $15,002
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,600
• After-tax cash flow: $11,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-wide mobile home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The home is move-in ready with a good layout, but the exterior and interior need freshening up.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — Aged appearance
• Minor interior paint — Worn wood paneling
• Minor kitchen cabinets — Dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both update kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets increase functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Aged appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior paint · Worn wood paneling	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen cabinets · Dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets increase functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $45,000 BAREIS