1202 Robin Rd · Lake of the Woods, IL 61853

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 0.34 ac lot Est $251k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

impeccably maintained; all new stainless appliances (included) laminate flooring, new roof(as we speak) Sangamon Valley water, gorgeous 3 seasons sunroom 22.4 15.2...a pleasure to show. new and newer: water heater,windows, doors,stainless appliances, flooring,wood fireplace, extra slab for parking, engineered flooring, sump pump,pull down stairs in garage, 3 seasons sun room....this is what we hope for! STICK-BUILT BY THE DEVELOPER!

Key facts

• Two garden sheds
• Three-season room
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• THREE-SEASON ROOM
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• ENCAPSULATED CRAWL SPACE
• TWO GARDEN SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-211/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#574 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mahomet-Seymour CUSD 3 (town): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #140 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mahomet-Seymour Jr High School (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #182 of 665 statewide, top 28%, 810 students, 0% FRL); Mahomet-Seymour High School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade D+, #38 of 693 statewide, top 6%, 997 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 19% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 132 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $255k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $221,021 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,163
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2109 Mallard Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-3%)	6mo	$226,500	$164	89
2213 Olen Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-1%)	5mo	$175,000	$125	84
1201 Robin Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-10%)	1mo	$226,500	$177	82
1213 Robin Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-1%)	21mo	$192,500	$137	74
1207 Rolling Hills Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-8%)	21mo	$197,900	$152	61
2022 Prairie Grass Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,466 (+3%)	7mo	$374,900	$256	48
2001 Kinley Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+10%)	11mo	$382,500	$244	43
1911 E Quail Run Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,580 (+11%)	21mo	$370,000	$234	33
2003 Kinley Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,560 (+10%)	15mo	$370,000	$237	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,405
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,226
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61853

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,842/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,232

Max offer price $251,899

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $55	+0% $-18	+5% $-90	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-105	+0% $-18	+5% $70	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $47	base $-18	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $255,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active (Private) 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active (Private) 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active (Private) 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active (Private) 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $255,000 Active (Private) 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,842 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,815 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: +$973/yr (+$81/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,842
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,090
• After-tax cash flow: $879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mahomet-Seymour CUSD 3
• NCES district ID: 1724060
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $73,748
• Composite: 34.72/100
• National rank: #5134
• State rank: #140 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #574
• US rank: #12058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, IL
• County: Champaign County · 182,148 people
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,831
• Household income: $115,512
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 163.0

Population outlook (Champaign County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,848 people
• By 2030: 231,416 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 244,321 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 256,432 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 285,823 · +27.7%
• By 2100: 296,406 · +32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Champaign

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.1) · D 61.3% · R 37.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.1 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+18.4 2012: D+6.8 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.54%
• Current HPI: 200.9388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Champaign-Urbana, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+82.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $255,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-31 Sold (MLS) $138,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-07 Listed $139,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,842 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.