Is 166 Mountain Meadows Dr in Morganton, GA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.8% cap rate and $-276/mo modeled cash flow at a $229,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 166 Mountain Meadows Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,781/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 34.42

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +9.1/15.0
Cash flow +7.6/30.0
Schools +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +2.9/5.0
1% rule +2.8/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +1.7/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$229,000

166 Mountain Meadows Dr · Morganton, GA 30560

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 507 sqft · SingleFamily · 115 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 3,920 sqft lot $452/sqft · at area comps Est $237k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Ever dreamed of trading the daily grind for a stylish waterfront retreat? This isn't just a tiny home; it's a mountain sanctuary tucked away in the gated Waterside at Blue Ridge community. Inside, every inch is intentional and honestly, pretty stunning. You've got a primary bedroom on the main floor, a sleek kitchen for whipping up brunch, and a flexible bonus room with a Murphy bed that's perfect for whenever you need it. There's even a loft for extra space and a massive deck that's basically a front-row seat to the pond. When you aren't lounging on the deck, you can hit the clubhouse, take a dip in the pool or hot tub, or unwind by the fire pits. Whether you're hunting for your own weekend escape or a sharp rental investment, this North Georgia gem is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

Gated community
Clubhouse
Mountain sanctuary

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (17.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (22.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $178k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.1% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 57/100 on livability (#456 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
Fannin County (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #51 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary School (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #435 of 1,228 statewide, top 37%, 426 students, 51% FRL); Fannin County Middle School (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #126 of 470 statewide, top 28%, 619 students, 53% FRL); Fannin County High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #68 of 424 statewide, top 17%, 900 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 496 active listings in the ZIP; 375 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $178,084 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.78% ✗
Cap rate: 4.85%
Cash-on-cash: -5.16%
DSCR: 0.77
GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $237,173
List price: $229,000
Delta: -3.45%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
L42 Mountain Meadows Cir	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	400 (-21%)	9mo	$240,000	$600	59
LOT 124 Mountain Meadows Rd	0.13mi	1/1.0 (-1)	542 (+7%)	50mo	$219,000	$404	58
167 Mountain Meadows Cir	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	396 (-22%)	16mo	$230,000	$581	57
694 Misty Mountain Trl	1.69mi	2/1.0	580 (+14%)	9mo	$370,000	$638	33
320 Misty Mountain Trl	1.85mi	1/1.0 (-1)	440 (-13%)	56mo	$515,000	$1,170	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.0%
Equity multiple: 0.15×
Total profit: $-54,579
Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

IRR: -20.8%
Equity multiple: -0.09×
Total profit: $-69,779
Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30560

Home prices YoY: -9.6%
Active inventory: 496
Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,781 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
Insurance: −$95
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $189,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-117	-5% $-197	+0% $-276	+5% $-355	+10% $-434
Rent	-10% $-416	-5% $-346	+0% $-276	+5% $-205	+10% $-135
Rate	-1.0pp $-160	-0.5pp $-217	base $-276	+0.5pp $-335	+1.0pp $-395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $57,250
Closing costs: $6,870
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Clubhouse and community amenities includedListing terms: Cash or Conventional
HOA & community: Has associationAssociation fee $1,200 (covers grounds maintenance, private roads, security, sewer, pool, trash, other)Community clubhouse, playground, and pool

Exterior

Parking: Parking pad (open parking)
Security: Gated communityCommunity security included in association
Utilities: Shared well waterPublic sewerHigh-speed internet available
Home design: Manufactured single-family residenceOne and one-half levelsResale property
Construction: Built in 2020Wood sidingMetal roofPillar/post/pier foundation
Exterior features: DeckLevel lotLakefront frontage with pond

Interior

Kitchen: CooktopDishwasherMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (1 on main level)
Flooring: Laminate
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
Interior features: High ceilingsFireplace (1)
Laundry & utility: WasherDryerLaundry located in hall and in kitchen

HOA detail $100/mo · $1,200/yr

Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $229,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $229,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $229,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $229,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $229,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $229,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $229,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $229,000 Active 107 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $229,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $229,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $229,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $229,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $229,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $229,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $229,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $229,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $229,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $229,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $229,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $229,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $229,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $229,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $229,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $229,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $229,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $229,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $229,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $229,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $229,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $229,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $229,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $229,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $229,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $229,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $229,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $229,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $229,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $229,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $229,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $229,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $229,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $229,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $229,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $229,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $229,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $229,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $229,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $229,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $229,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $229,000 Active 64 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,370
− Mortgage interest: −$12,828
− Property taxes: −$3,435
− Insurance: −$1,145
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
− Management: −$1,710
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$6,662
Taxable loss: −$7,319

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,756
After-tax cash flow: $-1,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,535–$7,605 screening

This charming tiny home in the Blue Ridge Mountains is in good condition with a good rehab level, ready for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace deck boards — Maintains structural integrity and enhances curb appeal ↑
Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and appeals to buyers ↑
Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue Ridge Elementary School F GA #435/1,228 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Fannin County Middle School D- GA #126/470 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Fannin County High School F GA #68/424 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fannin County
NCES district ID: 1302100
Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
Median HH income: $37,693
Composite: 32.92/100
National rank: #5597
State rank: #51 of 174 in GA

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Morganton

Score: 57/100
State rank: #456
US rank: #21670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Fannin · 25,218 people
Population (ZIP): 4,194
Household income: $56,391
Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 25,218 people
By 2030: 25,519 · +1.2%
By 2040: 25,548 · +1.3%
By 2050: 25,008 · -0.8%
By 2075: 23,359 · -7.4%
By 2100: 20,129 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

2024 margin: Solid R (+64.8) · D 17.4% · R 82.2%
2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -49.1pp · 2024: -64.8pp
All cycles: 2024: R+64.8 2020: R+64.6 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+49.1

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -33.58%
Current HPI: 316.822
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
#203 WestRock Atlanta $19.3B #346 Graphic Packaging Holding Atlanta $9.4B
Retail	1	$160B
#24 Home Depot Atlanta $159.5B
Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
#47 United Parcel Service Atlanta $91.1B
Airlines	1	$62B
#70 Delta Air Lines Atlanta $61.6B
Consumer Goods	1	$47B
#97 Coca-Cola Atlanta $47.1B
Utilities	1	$25B
#147 Southern Company Atlanta $24.9B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

2026-07-16 Relisted — NEGBOR
2026-07-16 Price Changed $229,000 NEGBOR
2026-07-16 Listed $229,000 GAMLS
2026-05-26 Listing Removed — GAMLS
2026-02-07 Listed $239,000 GAMLS
2026-02-07 Listed $239,000 NEGBOR
2025-09-19 Listed $248,000 NEGBOR
2025-05-26 Listed $250,000 NEGBOR
2022-06-17 Pending — GAMLS
2022-06-15 Listing Removed — GAMLS
2022-04-29 Price Changed $239,900 GAMLS
2022-04-29 Relisted — GAMLS
2022-04-25 Pending — GAMLS
2022-04-15 Price Changed $249,900 GAMLS
2022-04-01 Price Changed $254,900 GAMLS
2022-02-28 Listed $259,900 GAMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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