15119 Mira Vista Dr · Mission Bend, TX 77083

$225,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1984 7,583 sqft lot Est $311k · 28% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location! Location! Location. Conveniently located very close to Highway 6 and West Park Toll road with all major grocery stores minutes away. This house offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Primary bedroom is downstairs with nice size living area with dinning area.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Close to highway 6
• Conveniently located

Tags

• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• CLOSE TO HIGHWAY 6
• CLOSE TO WEST PARK TOLL ROAD
• PRIMARY BEDROOM IS DOWNSTAIRS
• NICE SIZE LIVING AREA
• DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mission Bend Civic Association; Annual association fee of $500; Community has curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1984; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt and concrete road surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Disposal; Breakfast nook (10x9); Kitchen (16x10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x12); Second-floor bedroom (11x11); Second-floor bedroom (17x10); Second-floor bedroom (15x13)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom with attached bath; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-141/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (0.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Mission Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Albright Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,058 students, 81% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,770
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15119 Mira Vista Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,302 (0%)	0mo	$225,000	$98	100
15414 Empanada Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,228 (-3%)	1mo	$319,000	$143	81
7107 Mission Bay Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,383 (+4%)	1mo	$335,000	$141	76
15410 Empanada Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,083 (-10%)	1mo	$200,000	$96	69
14938 Mesita Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,253 (-2%)	2mo	$289,999	$129	67
8706 Chelsworth Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,328 (+1%)	1mo	$309,900	$133	64
15319 La Paloma Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,223 (-3%)	2mo	$299,900	$135	60
15411 Monte Vista Dr	0.70mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,356 (+2%)	1mo	$335,000	$142	58
15519 Montesa Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,017 (-12%)	1mo	$289,000	$143	55
8707 Rocky Valley Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,564 (+11%)	1mo	$345,000	$135	47
15427 Rio Plaza Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,992 (-14%)	1mo	$225,000	$113	42
15818 Beechnut St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-11%)	1mo	$270,000	$132	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,517
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-44,637
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77083

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$478 /mo · $5,742/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $222,931

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7902 Belterraza Ct Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3300	$2,375	$0.72	5d	1	0.31mi
15511 Evergreen Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,786	$1.09	5d	1	0.64mi
7214 Addicks Clodine Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1969	$1,900	$0.96	5d	1	0.69mi
6514 Winkleman Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2225	$2,095	$0.94	12d	1	0.85mi
15306 Evergreen Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,730	$1.00	24d	1	0.87mi
7431 Navidad Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,621	$0.85	43d	1	0.99mi
15406 Lynford Crest Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2740	$2,200	$0.80	4d	1	1.06mi
14918 Laytham Ln Sugar Land, TX	4.0	3.5	3238	$2,550	$0.79	2d	1	1.27mi
7211 Crescent Mills Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1878	$8,850	$4.71	43d	1	1.27mi
7211 Crescent Mills Dr Unit 1521536P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$6,487	$3.47	43d	1	1.27mi
16243 April Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2189	$2,295	$1.05	43d	1	1.27mi
7207 Crescent Mills Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$8,850	$5.06	43d	1	1.27mi
16131 April Ridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,000	$1.12	43d	1	1.28mi
7010 Santa Rita Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,200	$0.91	43d	1	1.34mi
16318 Autumn Leigh Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	3063	$2,846	$0.93	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-10
   status Active
4. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-12
   historical
6. 2026-02-27
   listed $225,000 Active
7. 2005-02-01
   soldstatus
8. 2002-10-01
   soldstatus
9. 1988-03-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,742 · $478/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,742 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$5,742
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$906
• After-tax cash flow: $766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission Bend

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission Bend, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 74,843
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 73,230
• Household income: $64,418
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2410.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 30% Asian 23% Two or more races 14% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 11% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.00%
• Current HPI: 271.2157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2005-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,742 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.