The Atlanta Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$238,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 378 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Atlanta is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Swenson Heights community in Seguin, Texas. This 1,156 square foot home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage. Our homes in Swenson Heights feature our modern farmhouse exteriors and the Atlanta is available in 2 exterior options. Step inside the Atlanta and enter the heart of the home, the open concept living space. The kitchen, dining and living room are intentionally designed for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42" upper 'picture frame' cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances. The secondary bedrooms are located off the kitchen, as well as a secondary bathroom and utility room. The bedrooms include carpet and closets with wood shelving. The secondary bathroom has a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink. The primary bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Stretch out at the end of the day in this owner's retreat, which includes a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a large walk-in closet. This home features our America's Smart Home base package, which includes a Video Doorbell, Front Door Key Code Deadbolt Lock, Home Hub, Thermostat, and Deako Smart Switches. Contact us today and find your home at Swenson Heights.

Key facts

• One story floorplans
• Quartz countertops
• Pantry closet

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLANS
• MODERN FARMHOUSE EXTERIORS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• PANTRY CLOSET
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $238,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,832.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 378 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,449 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 378 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,832
• List price: $238,990
• Delta: -11.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Dionicio Loop	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+5%)	3mo	$239,990	$198	77
121 Dionicio Loop	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+5%)	1mo	$249,990	$206	77
1026 Bold Run	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	2mo	$229,990	$199	71
1026 Bold Run	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	2mo	$227,990	$197	71
813 Prince Albert	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+8%)	9mo	$259,990	$207	58
906 Indian Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+8%)	8mo	$239,990	$192	56
816 Indian Way	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,082 (-6%)	9mo	$249,990	$231	55
906 Indian Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+8%)	8mo	$239,990	$192	54
1019 Bold Run	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	5mo	$219,990	$172	52
1034 Bold Run	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	7mo	$229,990	$180	52
1019 Bold Run	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	5mo	$219,990	$172	50
1034 Bold Run	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	7mo	$212,000	$166	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-70,543
• Equity at exit: $40,382

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-100,582
• Equity at exit: $23,417

Cash invested: $75,833 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,062/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,369

Max offer price $214,281

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-297	+0% $-391	+5% $-484	+10% $-578
Rent	-10% $-539	-5% $-465	+0% $-391	+5% $-317	+10% $-243
Rate	-1.0pp $-254	-0.5pp $-322	base $-391	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,708
• Closing costs: $8,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Gather Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,850	$1.32	2d	1	0.04mi
152 Navarro Xing Unit 3B Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,450	$1.28	44d	1	0.99mi
3501 N Austin St Seguin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	871	$1,836	$2.11	15d	6	1.33mi
3501 N Austin St Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,199	$2.15	2d	24	1.33mi
3501 N Austin St Seguin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,975	$1.93	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,990 Active 378 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,990 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,990 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,990 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,990 Active 373 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 694-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,990 Active 372 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,990 Active 369 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,990 Active 368 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,990 Active 367 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,990 Active 364 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,990 Active 363 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,990 Active 362 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,990 Active 361 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,990 Active 360 DOM
16. 2025-06-06
    price $238,990 1411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1411 chars)

    The Atlanta is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Swenson Heights community in Seguin, Texas. This 1,156 square foot home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage. Our homes in Swenson Heights feature our modern farmhouse exteriors and the Atlanta is available in 2 exterior options. Step inside the Atlanta and enter the heart of the home, the open concept living space. The kitchen, dining and living room are intentionally designed for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42" upper 'picture frame' cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances. The secondary bedrooms are located off the kitchen, as well as a secondary bathroom and utility room. The bedrooms include carpet and closets with wood shelving. The secondary bathroom has a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink. The primary bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Stretch out at the end of the day in this owner's retreat, which includes a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a large walk-in closet. This home features our America's Smart Home base package, which includes a Video Doorbell, Front Door Key Code Deadbolt Lock, Home Hub, Thermostat, and Deako Smart Switches. Contact us today and find your home at Swenson Heights.

17. 2025-06-05
    listed $239,990 Active 1411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1411 chars)

    The Atlanta is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Swenson Heights community in Seguin, Texas. This 1,156 square foot home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage. Our homes in Swenson Heights feature our modern farmhouse exteriors and the Atlanta is available in 2 exterior options. Step inside the Atlanta and enter the heart of the home, the open concept living space. The kitchen, dining and living room are intentionally designed for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42" upper 'picture frame' cabinets, a pantry closet, and stainless-steel appliances. The secondary bedrooms are located off the kitchen, as well as a secondary bathroom and utility room. The bedrooms include carpet and closets with wood shelving. The secondary bathroom has a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink. The primary bedroom is tucked away at the back of the home and includes an attached bathroom. Stretch out at the end of the day in this owner's retreat, which includes a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a large walk-in closet. This home features our America's Smart Home base package, which includes a Video Doorbell, Front Door Key Code Deadbolt Lock, Home Hub, Thermostat, and Deako Smart Switches. Contact us today and find your home at Swenson Heights.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,171
• − Property taxes: −$4,062
• − Insurance: −$1,354
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$7,879
• Taxable loss: −$9,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,297
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $238,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-05 Listed $239,990 Zillow