Manchester-A (Handicap Adaptable) Plan · Bismarck, ND 58503

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · Townhouse · 145 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 145 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $195,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-story plan (Manchester-A, handicap adaptable)
• Construction: New construction plan
• Exterior features: Located near N Washington Street and Medora Ave in Bismarck, ND

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan is Manchester-A (Handicap Adaptable)

🏗️ New construction. The $195,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $356,589.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $195k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-983 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C, #52 of 236 statewide, top 22%, 496 students, 5% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D+, #13 of 35 statewide, top 35%, 1,044 students, 14% FRL); Century High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #14 of 144 statewide, top 9%, 1,427 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 489 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.82%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $356,589
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
713 Bremner Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,334 (+5%)	1mo	$375,000	$281	61
809 Canada Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,123 (-12%)	7mo	$275,000	$245	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-110,474
• Equity at exit: $53,169

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-131,633
• Equity at exit: $30,831

Cash invested: $99,845 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,870
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$446 /mo · $5,349/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,119

Max offer price $214,305

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-737	-5% $-860	+0% $-983	+5% $-1,107	+10% $-1,230
Rent	-10% $-1,131	-5% $-1,057	+0% $-983	+5% $-909	+10% $-835
Rate	-1.0pp $-804	-0.5pp $-893	base $-983	+0.5pp $-1,076	+1.0pp $-1,170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,147
• Closing costs: $10,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4231 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1562	$2,395	$1.53	23d	1	0.47mi
4227 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1562	$2,395	$1.53	23d	1	0.47mi
4442 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1544	$2,395	$1.55	23d	1	0.48mi
4201 Montreal St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,586	$1.45	23d	15	0.55mi
4126A Normandy St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	1468	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	0.69mi
220 E Greenfield Ln Unit B-402 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,661	$1.46	23d	1	0.81mi
444 E Brandon Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,110	$1.23	23d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $195,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $195,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,975
• − Property taxes: −$5,349
• − Insurance: −$1,783
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$10,373
• Taxable loss: −$18,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,460
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and maintenance across all systems and areas, with a focus on exterior, interior, and landscaping improvements to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen in the satellite image.
• Major systems — No visible systems in the satellite image.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both extensive exterior renovation — A complete exterior renovation would significantly improve both the resale and rental value.
• Both interior renovation and paint — A thorough interior renovation and fresh paint job would enhance both the resale and rental appeal.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape would boost both the resale and rental value.
• Both modern kitchen and bathrooms — Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms to modern standards would greatly increase the home's value for both buyers and renters.
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both the resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape would boost both the resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible exterior in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both extensive exterior renovation — A complete exterior renovation would significantly improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior renovation and paint — A thorough interior renovation and fresh paint job would enhance both the resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape would boost both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both modern kitchen and bathrooms — Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms to modern standards would greatly increase the home's value for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape would boost both the resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B