5536 N Hickory Grove Rd · Echols County, GA 31606

$399,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2012 25 ac lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $420k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you've been looking for space, privacy, and a peaceful setting, this one checks all the boxes. Situated on 25.267 high-and-dry acres in South Lowndes County, this 2012 mobile home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a comfortable, functional layout. Inside, you'll find a partially open floor plan with a spacious living area flowing into a well-equipped kitchen featuring abundant cabinet and counter space. The kitchen comes complete with a refrigerator, stovetop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and center kitchen island with bar seating. The dining area is generously sized and easily accommodates a large table and additional furniture. The primary bedroom is a great size and the primary bath offers double vanities, a jetted tub, separate shower, and an oversized walk-in closet that spans the entire 32-foot width of the home-providing exceptional storage and hanging space. The additional three bedrooms are found on the opposite side of the home, with one featuring its own large walk-in closet, and they share a centrally located hall bath. You're sure to appreciate the 9-foot ceilings and crown molding throughout, and a laundry room with space for a stand-up freezer and more storage. Outside, the property offers the kind of privacy and quiet that's hard to find. There are two storage buildings, one with power and water, plus an additional septic system and power pole from a previous homesite-offering added flexibility for future use and a great place for an RV hook up. Located in a rural setting but still convenient to Valdosta and Lake Park for shopping, dining, and everyday needs, this property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. To top it all off, a new roof was installed in 2024 for added peace of mind.

Key facts

• 25.267 acres
• 25.27 acre lot
• Built 2012

Tags

• 25.267 ACRES
• PARTIALLY OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• CENTER KITCHEN ISLAND
• GENEROUSLY SIZED DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (64.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (70.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (70.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#233 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Park Elementary School (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C-, #244 of 1,228 statewide, top 20%, 643 students, 72% FRL); Lowndes Middle School (math 39% / reading 45%, grade D-, #126 of 470 statewide, top 28%, 840 students, 72% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 42% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $400k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,042 (70.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.71%
• DSCR: 0.30
• GRM: 28.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,736
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: -4.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-48,534
• Equity at exit: $176,508

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-38,204
• Equity at exit: $269,445

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31606

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 28.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,706/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-1,466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,046

Max offer price $141,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,240	-5% $-1,353	+0% $-1,466	+5% $-1,579	+10% $-1,692
Rent	-10% $-1,560	-5% $-1,513	+0% $-1,466	+5% $-1,419	+10% $-1,372
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,265	-0.5pp $-1,364	base $-1,466	+0.5pp $-1,570	+1.0pp $-1,675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Under Contract 1760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1772 chars)

   If you've been looking for space, privacy, and a peaceful setting, this one checks all the boxes. Situated on 25.267 high-and-dry acres in South Lowndes County, this 2012 mobile home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a comfortable, functional layout. Inside, you'll find a partially open floor plan with a spacious living area flowing into a well-equipped kitchen featuring abundant cabinet and counter space. The kitchen comes complete with a refrigerator, stovetop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and center kitchen island with bar seating. The dining area is generously sized and easily accommodates a large table and additional furniture. The primary bedroom is a great size and the primary bath offers double vanities, a jetted tub, separate shower, and an oversized walk-in closet that spans the entire 32-foot width of the home—providing exceptional storage and hanging space. The additional three bedrooms are found on the opposite side of the home, with one featuring its own large walk-in closet, and they share a centrally located hall bath. You're sure to appreciate the 9-foot ceilings and crown molding throughout, and a laundry room with space for a stand-up freezer and more storage. Outside, the property offers the kind of privacy and quiet that's hard to find. There are two storage buildings, one with power and water, plus an additional septic system and power pole from a previous homesite—offering added flexibility for future use and a great place for an RV hook up. Located in a rural setting but still convenient to Valdosta and Lake Park for shopping, dining, and everyday needs, this property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. To top it all off, a new roof was installed in 2024 for added peace of mind.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1772 chars)

   If you've been looking for space, privacy, and a peaceful setting, this one checks all the boxes. Situated on 25.267 high-and-dry acres in South Lowndes County, this 2012 mobile home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a comfortable, functional layout. Inside, you'll find a partially open floor plan with a spacious living area flowing into a well-equipped kitchen featuring abundant cabinet and counter space. The kitchen comes complete with a refrigerator, stovetop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and center kitchen island with bar seating. The dining area is generously sized and easily accommodates a large table and additional furniture. The primary bedroom is a great size and the primary bath offers double vanities, a jetted tub, separate shower, and an oversized walk-in closet that spans the entire 32-foot width of the home—providing exceptional storage and hanging space. The additional three bedrooms are found on the opposite side of the home, with one featuring its own large walk-in closet, and they share a centrally located hall bath. You're sure to appreciate the 9-foot ceilings and crown molding throughout, and a laundry room with space for a stand-up freezer and more storage. Outside, the property offers the kind of privacy and quiet that's hard to find. There are two storage buildings, one with power and water, plus an additional septic system and power pole from a previous homesite—offering added flexibility for future use and a great place for an RV hook up. Located in a rural setting but still convenient to Valdosta and Lake Park for shopping, dining, and everyday needs, this property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. To top it all off, a new roof was installed in 2024 for added peace of mind.

3. 2026-03-19
   listed $399,999 Active 1772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1772 chars)

   If you've been looking for space, privacy, and a peaceful setting, this one checks all the boxes. Situated on 25.267 high-and-dry acres in South Lowndes County, this 2012 mobile home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a comfortable, functional layout. Inside, you'll find a partially open floor plan with a spacious living area flowing into a well-equipped kitchen featuring abundant cabinet and counter space. The kitchen comes complete with a refrigerator, stovetop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and center kitchen island with bar seating. The dining area is generously sized and easily accommodates a large table and additional furniture. The primary bedroom is a great size and the primary bath offers double vanities, a jetted tub, separate shower, and an oversized walk-in closet that spans the entire 32-foot width of the home—providing exceptional storage and hanging space. The additional three bedrooms are found on the opposite side of the home, with one featuring its own large walk-in closet, and they share a centrally located hall bath. You're sure to appreciate the 9-foot ceilings and crown molding throughout, and a laundry room with space for a stand-up freezer and more storage. Outside, the property offers the kind of privacy and quiet that's hard to find. There are two storage buildings, one with power and water, plus an additional septic system and power pole from a previous homesite—offering added flexibility for future use and a great place for an RV hook up. Located in a rural setting but still convenient to Valdosta and Lake Park for shopping, dining, and everyday needs, this property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. To top it all off, a new roof was installed in 2024 for added peace of mind.

4. 2026-03-18
   listed $399,999 New 1760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1760 chars)

   If you've been looking for space, privacy, and a peaceful setting, this one checks all the boxes. Situated on 25.267 high-and-dry acres in South Lowndes County, this 2012 mobile home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a comfortable, functional layout. Inside, you'll find a partially open floor plan with a spacious living area flowing into a well-equipped kitchen featuring abundant cabinet and counter space. The kitchen comes complete with a refrigerator, stovetop, wall oven, built-in microwave, and center kitchen island with bar seating. The dining area is generously sized and easily accommodates a large table and additional furniture. The primary bedroom is a great size and the primary bath offers double vanities, a jetted tub, separate shower, and an oversized walk-in closet that spans the entire 32-foot width of the home-providing exceptional storage and hanging space. The additional three bedrooms are found on the opposite side of the home, with one featuring its own large walk-in closet, and they share a centrally located hall bath. You're sure to appreciate the 9-foot ceilings and crown molding throughout, and a laundry room with space for a stand-up freezer and more storage. Outside, the property offers the kind of privacy and quiet that's hard to find. There are two storage buildings, one with power and water, plus an additional septic system and power pole from a previous homesite-offering added flexibility for future use and a great place for an RV hook up. Located in a rural setting but still convenient to Valdosta and Lake Park for shopping, dining, and everyday needs, this property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. To top it all off, a new roof was installed in 2024 for added peace of mind.

5. 2001-03-29
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,706 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,680 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,974/yr (+$165/mo · 115.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$1,706
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$25,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,180
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Echols County

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #13454

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 12,616
• Population (ZIP): 3,391

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 190.4666
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $399,999 SGMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $399,999 GAMLS
• 2001-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,706 · +49.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.