3246 Lafayette Rd · Hopkinsville, KY 42240

$122,750

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1964

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2 bath home, hardwood floors, Kitchen & eat in dining, stainless appliances. Windows & HVAC have been replaced. Huge fenced yard with storage building. Unfinished basement for storage & serve as a storm shelter.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Large eat-in kitchen
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• STORM SHELTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.3% in Hopkinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#305 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $848 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,750

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.87%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
322 Gateway Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,925 (+6%)	7mo	$233,000	$121	70
3520 Rocky Point Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+6%)	5mo	$228,500	$118	67
100 Daven Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-4%)	6mo	$290,000	$166	66
404 Springmont Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (-5%)	2mo	$259,499	$149	56
2705 S Virginia St S	0.68mi	4/1.0	1,836 (+1%)	8mo	$207,000	$113	56
2736 Clinton Cir	0.64mi	4/1.5	1,721 (-6%)	3mo	$239,900	$139	56
114 Barkley Lake Ct	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,800 (-1%)	8mo	$265,000	$147	54
3702 Dale Hollow Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,636 (-10%)	5mo	$130,631	$80	51
129 Remington Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,044 (+12%)	10mo	$350,000	$171	46
415 Linda Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-13%)	2mo	$220,000	$139	46
421 Simon St	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,036 (+12%)	2mo	$335,000	$165	44
2625 S Virginia St	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,039 (+12%)	0mo	$205,000	$101	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $22,691
• Equity at exit: $18,302

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $94,423
• Equity at exit: $10,613

Cash invested: $34,370 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42240

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$644
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $837/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $122,750

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,688
• Closing costs: $3,682
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3701 Bahama Dr Hopkinsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,400	$1.03	44d	1	0.50mi
706 Fremont Pl Hopkinsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	14d	1	0.54mi
3639 St Hopkinsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	14d	1	0.69mi
3639 St Hopkinsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	44d	1	0.69mi
300 Griffin Gate Dr Hopkinsville, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1195	$1,499	$1.25	14d	4	1.11mi
106 Sherwood Dr Hopkinsville, KY	4.0	1.5	1600	$1,500	$0.94	14d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   listed $122,750 Active
3. 2017-09-19
   soldstatus $115,900
4. 2017-09-15
   soldstatus $115,900 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home, hardwood floors, Spacious kitchen with with stainless appliances and eat in dining. Windows and hvac have been replaced. Huge fenced yard to enjoy. Unfinished basement for storage and to serve as a storm shelter. Great family home in the Hoptown school district. Priced to sell!!

5. 2017-09-15
   soldstatus $115,900 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home, hardwood floors, Spacious kitchen with with stainless appliances and eat in dining. Windows and hvac have been replaced. Huge fenced yard to enjoy. Unfinished basement for storage and to serve as a storm shelter. Great family home in the Hoptown school district. Priced to sell!!

6. 2017-06-16
   listed $115,900 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home, hardwood floors, Kitchen & eat in dining, stainless appliances. Windows & HVAC have been replaced. Huge fenced yard with storage building. Unfinished basement for storage & serve as a storm shelter.

7. 2017-06-16
   listed $115,900 234-char remark

   Show marketing remark (234 chars)

   4 bedroom, 2 bath home, hardwood floors, Kitchen & eat in dining, stainless appliances. Windows & HVAC have been replaced. Huge fenced yard with storage building. Unfinished basement for storage & serve as a storm shelter.

8. 2007-02-07
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $837 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,876
• − Property taxes: −$837
• − Insurance: −$614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,621
• − Management: −$1,621
• − Depreciation: −$3,571
• Taxable income: $5,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,229
• After-tax cash flow: $5,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Christian County
• NCES district ID: 2101150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,961
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7118
• State rank: #93 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hopkinsville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #14474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hopkinsville, KY
• County: Christian County · 51,080 people
• City population: 41,415
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 41,415
• Household income: $51,534
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Christian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,861 people
• By 2030: 65,808 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 60,090 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 54,561 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 45,859 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 38,310 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 23% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Christian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+28.4 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.36%
• Current HPI: 233.3958
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+22.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — HCTCBOR
• 2026-04-11 Listed $122,750 HCTCBOR
• 2017-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,900 Public Records
• 2017-09-15 Sold (MLS) $115,900 HCTCBOR
• 2017-09-15 Sold (MLS) $115,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-16 Listed $115,900 HCTCBOR
• 2017-06-16 Listed $115,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $837 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.