3420 N Twin City Hwy · Central Gardens, TX 77627

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1962 10,019 sqft lot $111/sqft · 10% below area Est $217k · 10% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! Major updates include Roof (2018), Water Heater (2017), and A/C (2016). This cozy 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Nederland ISD offers no city taxes, abundant natural light, and a spacious living area with a fireplace. The kitchen features tile flooring, pantry, built-in microwave, dishwasher, and ample cabinet space, with washer & dryer included. Split floor plan provides privacy with a spacious primary suite, walk-in closet with built-ins, and a spa-like bath with double sinks and a walk-in double-headed shower. Both bathrooms are tastefully updated, and one secondary bedroom features a fun mural. Enjoy a large backyard with room to relax or entertain, plus potential for additional parking for a boat, trailer, or work vehicles. Conveniently located less than 3 miles from schools. FHA & VA welcome. Priced to sell!

Key facts

• Natural light
• Spa like bathroom
• Tile flooring

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• COZY FIREPLACE
• TILE FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• SPA LIKE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#337 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,493
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -10.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 6th Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (+6%)	8mo	$195,000	$105	59
3019 California St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,945 (+11%)	11mo	$239,000	$123	52
3012 Washington St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-11%)	21mo	$265,000	$170	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,909
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $69,430
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,988/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,818

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1903 N 19th St Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,950	$1.37	43d	1	1.22mi
3405 Landrey Ct Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,746	$1.20	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $195,000 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Welcome home! Major updates include Roof (2018), Water Heater (2017), and A/C (2016). This cozy 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Nederland ISD offers no city taxes, abundant natural light, and a spacious living area with a fireplace. The kitchen features tile flooring, pantry, built-in microwave, dishwasher, and ample cabinet space, with washer & dryer included. Split floor plan provides privacy with a spacious primary suite, walk-in closet with built-ins, and a spa-like bath with double sinks and a walk-in double-headed shower. Both bathrooms are tastefully updated, and one secondary bedroom features a fun mural. Enjoy a large backyard with room to relax or entertain, plus potential for additional parking for a boat, trailer, or work vehicles. Conveniently located less than 3 miles from schools. FHA & VA welcome. Priced to sell!

18. 2026-03-24
    price $199,900 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Welcome home! Major updates include Roof (2018), Water Heater (2017), and A/C (2016). This cozy 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Nederland ISD offers no city taxes, abundant natural light, and a spacious living area with a fireplace. The kitchen features tile flooring, pantry, built-in microwave, dishwasher, and ample cabinet space, with washer & dryer included. Split floor plan provides privacy with a spacious primary suite, walk-in closet with built-ins, and a spa-like bath with double sinks and a walk-in double-headed shower. Both bathrooms are tastefully updated, and one secondary bedroom features a fun mural. Enjoy a large backyard with room to relax or entertain, plus potential for additional parking for a boat, trailer, or work vehicles. Conveniently located less than 3 miles from schools. FHA & VA welcome. Priced to sell!

19. 2026-03-03
    listed $205,000 Active 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Welcome home! Major updates include Roof (2018), Water Heater (2017), and A/C (2016). This cozy 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Nederland ISD offers no city taxes, abundant natural light, and a spacious living area with a fireplace. The kitchen features tile flooring, pantry, built-in microwave, dishwasher, and ample cabinet space, with washer & dryer included. Split floor plan provides privacy with a spacious primary suite, walk-in closet with built-ins, and a spa-like bath with double sinks and a walk-in double-headed shower. Both bathrooms are tastefully updated, and one secondary bedroom features a fun mural. Enjoy a large backyard with room to relax or entertain, plus potential for additional parking for a boat, trailer, or work vehicles. Conveniently located less than 3 miles from schools. FHA & VA welcome. Priced to sell!

20. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus
21. 2022-05-11
    soldstatus 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Updated four bedroom, 2 bath home located in a commercial and county area of NISD, no city taxes! You can make this your home, your business, or your home with your business. Split-bedroom plan with the master having a spa-like shower and bath. Cute kitchen with lots of cabinets and comes with the refrigerator. The living room offers a fireplace. Inside utility. The backyard pool and deck are perfect for summer swims and hanging out. Move-In ready!

22. 2022-05-11
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Updated four bedroom, 2 bath home located in a commercial and county area of NISD, no city taxes! You can make this your home, your business, or your home with your business. Split-bedroom plan with the master having a spa-like shower and bath. Cute kitchen with lots of cabinets and comes with the refrigerator. The living room offers a fireplace. Inside utility. The backyard pool and deck are perfect for summer swims and hanging out. Move-In ready!

23. 2022-03-22
    listed $189,900
24. 2022-02-28
    listed $189,900 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Updated four bedroom, 2 bath home located in a commercial and county area of NISD, no city taxes! You can make this your home, your business, or your home with your business. Split-bedroom plan with the master having a spa-like shower and bath. Cute kitchen with lots of cabinets and comes with the refrigerator. The living room offers a fireplace. Inside utility. The backyard pool and deck are perfect for summer swims and hanging out. Move-In ready!

25. 2021-12-22
    historical
26. 2021-12-02
    listed $225,500 Active
27. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus
28. 2019-02-14
    soldstatus
29. 2019-01-04
    listed $159,900
30. 2017-11-15
    soldstatus
31. 2017-08-17
    soldstatus
32. 2008-07-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,988 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,988 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,988
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $29
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $3,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Central Gardens

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #7335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Central Gardens, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+22.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $195,000 BBOR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $199,900 BBOR
• 2026-03-03 Listed $205,000 BBOR
• 2022-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-11 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2022-05-11 Sold (MLS) — PNPANBOR
• 2022-03-22 Listed $189,900 BBOR
• 2022-02-28 Listed $189,900 PNPANBOR
• 2021-12-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-12-02 Listed $225,500 HARMLS
• 2019-02-15 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2019-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-04 Listed $159,900 BBOR
• 2017-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,988 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.