413 W Essex Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$175,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1964 7,016 sqft lot $132/sqft · 9% above area Est $161k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Sizable bedrooms
• Well-sized closet

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SIZABLE BEDROOMS
• WELL-SIZED CLOSET
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 7,016 sq ft
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Painted block construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Grass in front yard; Fenced (other)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (see remarks); Cooling present (see remarks)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Eat-in kitchen; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ray Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 184 students, 55% FRL); Ray Jr/Sr High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 189 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $175k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.90%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,915
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 8.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 W Hartford Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,260 (-5%)	4mo	$185,000	$147	79
426 W Essex Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (+4%)	3mo	$230,000	$166	77
336 W Greenwich Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	5mo	$175,000	$140	72
429 W Greenwich Rd	0.12mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,293 (-2%)	16mo	$175,000	$135	70
504 W Hartford Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (+4%)	14mo	$140,000	$102	64
329 W Fairhaven Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (-5%)	11mo	$210,000	$167	62
437 W Hartford Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,246 (-6%)	17mo	$114,000	$91	58
302 W Greenwich Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+10%)	1mo	$185,000	$127	54
423 W Jamestown Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (+12%)	6mo	$226,000	$152	54
443 W Ivanhoe Rd	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (-12%)	11mo	$165,000	$142	54
217 W Fairhaven Rd W	0.43mi	3/1.8 (-1)	1,232 (-7%)	10mo	$230,000	$187	52
215 W Greenwich Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,177 (-11%)	9mo	$173,000	$147	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $107,999
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $307,880
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $877/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $250	+0% $200	+5% $151	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $137	+0% $200	+5% $263	+10% $327
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $245	base $200	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $175,000 Active 680-char remark
17. 2025-07-23
    historical $1,595
18. 2025-07-18
    listed $1,595
19. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

20. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus $100,000

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

21. 2021-04-05
    status Pending 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

22. 2021-03-27
    status Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

23. 2021-03-05
    status Pending 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

24. 2020-08-26
    status Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

25. 2020-07-12
    historical 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

26. 2020-03-03
    listed $99,900 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Adorable 4 bedroom 1 bath home with covered carport, spacious great room floor plan, sunny and bright kitchen has lots of natural light and plenty of cabinet and counter space with separate eating area. This home is move-in ready. Buyer to verify any and all items that are of material issue.

27. 1994-03-31
    soldstatus $13,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$278/yr (+$23/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$877
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$518
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $2,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1235.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Rental Removed $1,595 RENTLY
• 2025-07-18 Listed for Rent $1,595 RENTLY
• 2021-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $100,000 ARMLS
• 2021-04-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-03-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-03-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-08-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-07-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-03-03 Listed $99,900 ARMLS
• 1994-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $13,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $877 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.