755 Chestnut St · Dawson, MN 56232

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 258 Days on market

Built 1949 3,746 sqft lot $70/sqft · 14% below area Est $158k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 755 Chestnut St in Dawson! This home has a great location, ample storage and great updates! The basement has so much potential, including another bedroom with the addition of an egress window.

Key facts

• 3,746 sq ft lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 257 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($66/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#145 in MN, #3,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Dawson-Boyd Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #124 of 301 in MN (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Lac qui Parle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Lac qui Parle County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,514
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -14.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $25,737
• Equity at exit: $70,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $80,618
• Equity at exit: $116,601

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56232

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,734/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 258 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 257 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 256 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 255 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 240 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 239 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $135,000 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Welcome to 755 Chestnut St in Dawson! This home has a great location, ample storage and great updates! The basement has so much potential, including another bedroom with the addition of an egress window.

17. 2026-02-19
    price $139,500 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Welcome to 755 Chestnut St in Dawson! This home has a great location, ample storage and great updates! The basement has so much potential, including another bedroom with the addition of an egress window.

18. 2025-10-03
    listed $144,900 Active 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Welcome to 755 Chestnut St in Dawson! This home has a great location, ample storage and great updates! The basement has so much potential, including another bedroom with the addition of an egress window.

19. 2025-10-02
    status Active
20. 2025-10-02
    historical
21. 2025-10-02
    historical
22. 2025-07-17
    price $144,900
23. 2025-06-04
    price $149,900
24. 2025-04-01
    listed $155,000 Active
25. 2022-12-29
    soldstatus $130,512
26. 2022-12-22
    soldstatus $130,512 Sold
27. 2022-11-14
    status Pending
28. 2022-09-10
    price $138,900
29. 2022-08-17
    price $149,900
30. 2022-08-05
    listed $156,999 Active
31. 2021-08-17
    soldstatus $225,000
32. 2019-02-02
    historical
33. 2019-02-02
    historical
34. 2017-07-03
    soldstatus $79,000
35. 2017-06-30
    soldstatus $79,000
36. 2017-04-11
    listed $76,900
37. 2011-05-17
    listed $56,500
38. 2011-05-17
    listed $56,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,734 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,734 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,734
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$521
• After-tax cash flow: $587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dawson-Boyd Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2710090
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,615
• Composite: 42.5/100
• National rank: #3204
• State rank: #124 of 301 in MN

Livability — Dawson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #3213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dawson, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,365

Population outlook (Lac qui Parle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,291 people
• By 2030: 6,021 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 5,517 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 5,094 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 4,640 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 4,173 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 41% English 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lac qui Parle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 32.9% · R 65.2% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+25.9 2012: D+0.9 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Current HPI: 210.1619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+138.9% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $139,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Listed $144,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $144,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Listed $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $130,512 Public Records
• 2022-12-22 Sold (MLS) $130,512 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-14 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-10 Price Changed $138,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-17 Price Changed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Listed $156,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-30 Sold (MLS) $79,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-11 Listed $76,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-17 Listed $56,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-17 Listed $56,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,734 · +21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.