2630 Rocky Rdg · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2006 0.52 ac lot $192/sqft · 31% below area Est $432k · 31% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover your own Hill Country escape in the highly desirable Rocky Creek Ranch community. Set on a gated, fully fenced half-acre lot, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort, and functionality-with plenty of space to park your boat or RV. Step inside to an inviting open-concept layout featuring a stunning rock fireplace, durable hard-surface flooring throughout (no carpet), and stylish updates at every turn. The kitchen shines with a remodeled pantry, new dishwasher, and updated lighting and fixtures that add a fresh, modern touch. Start your mornings with coffee on the covered front porch and unwind in the evenings with breathtaking Hil

Key facts

• Remodeled pantry
• Rock fireplace
• New dishwasher

Tags

• GATED FULLY FENCED LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ROCK FIREPLACE
• HARD-SURFACE FLOORING
• REMODELED PANTRY
• NEW DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $97 annually; Association transfer fee $150; Subdivision: ROCKY CREEK RANCH

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water service by TX Water Co; Aerobic septic system; Private garbage service; Electricity by PERDENALES
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Approximately 20 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Siding exterior; Lot in ROCKY CREEK RANCH subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with island; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with full bath (12 x 12); Bedroom 2 (13 x 12); Bedroom 3 (13 x 12)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination (9 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living/Dining room combination; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry; Utility room inside; 1 living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 31% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,396 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,495
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -30.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2825 Rocky Rdg	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+8%)	3mo	$420,000	$249	75
1598 Desiree St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+6%)	11mo	$439,900	$266	71
220 Cody	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-10%)	1mo	$349,900	$248	68
909 Marlys Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+10%)	10mo	$399,500	$233	64
1084 Lasso Loop	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-8%)	10mo	$392,000	$272	62
1192 Desiree	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-13%)	2mo	$350,000	$259	57
131 Flint Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+4%)	3mo	$364,500	$225	56
1204 Lasso Loop	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,669 (+7%)	6mo	$435,000	$261	56
1229 Marlys	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,357 (-13%)	10mo	$356,000	$262	52
1246 Desiree St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-12%)	13mo	$359,900	$264	52
150 Kaleigh Way	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,749 (+12%)	10mo	$445,000	$254	51
1468 Lasso Loop	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-5%)	14mo	$425,000	$286	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-72,452
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-110,937
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,284 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,414/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,625

Max offer price $252,348

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-185	+0% $-270	+5% $-355	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-450	-5% $-360	+0% $-270	+5% $-180	+10% $-89
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-193	base $-270	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
968 Marlys Ave Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$2,400	$1.86	26d	1	0.26mi
1405 Yaupon Dr Fischer, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,500	$1.71	4d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    status Back on Market 1211-char remark
16. 2026-05-02
    historical Active Option 1211-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $300,000 New 1211-char remark
18. 2026-04-08
    historical
19. 2026-04-01
    price $315,000
20. 2026-02-21
    price $319,000
21. 2026-01-17
    historical
22. 2025-10-16
    price $329,000
23. 2025-10-15
    price $329,000
24. 2025-10-15
    price
25. 2025-09-16
    price $339,000
26. 2025-09-15
    price $339,000
27. 2025-09-15
    price
28. 2025-08-25
    price $349,000
29. 2025-08-19
    price $339,000
30. 2025-07-23
    listed $349,000 New
31. 2025-07-23
    listed $349,000 Active
32. 2025-07-23
    listed Active
33. 2025-07-16
    historical
34. 2025-06-30
    historical
35. 2024-08-19
    listed $432,000 Active
36. 2024-08-19
    listed Active
37. 2024-08-16
    listed $432,000 New
38. 2024-08-16
    historical
39. 2024-07-08
    listed $370,900 New
40. 2018-06-12
    soldstatus
41. 2018-06-11
    soldstatus Sold
42. 2018-05-24
    historical
43. 2018-04-29
    status Pending
44. 2018-04-29
    status Pending with Option
45. 2018-04-23
    listed $200,000 Active
46. 2018-04-23
    listed $200,000 New
47. 2012-06-19
    soldstatus
48. 2012-05-18
    historical
49. 2011-08-16
    listed $114,900
50. 2007-10-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,414 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,076/yr (+$90/mo · 24.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,414
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,045
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+136.2% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-05-02 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-28 Listed $300,000 LERA
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $315,000 LERA
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $319,000 LERA
• 2026-01-17 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $329,000 LERA
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $329,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $339,000 LERA
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $339,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $349,000 LERA
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $339,000 LERA
• 2025-07-23 Listed $349,000 LERA
• 2025-07-23 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $349,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-08-19 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-08-19 Listed $432,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-08-16 Listed $432,000 LERA
• 2024-07-08 Listed $370,900 LERA
• 2018-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-11 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-05-24 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-04-29 Pending — LERA
• 2018-04-29 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2018-04-23 Listed $200,000 CTXMLS
• 2018-04-23 Listed $200,000 LERA
• 2012-06-19 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2012-05-18 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-08-16 Listed $114,900 LERA
• 2007-10-30 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2007-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2007-04-26 Listed $127,000 LERA
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,414 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.