4652 SW Alpha St · Port St. Lucie, FL 34953

$389,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2007 10,000 sqft lot Est $375k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A TRUE UNIQUE HOME THAT IS A MUST SEE. CENTRALLY LOCATED CLOSE TO HIGHWAYS, SHOPS AND MORE. DRIVING UP TO THE HOME YOU ARE GREETED WITH A NICE FRONT ELEVATION AND OTHER REALLY NICE AMENITIES. ENTERING THE PROPERTY YOU ARE TAKEN BY THE VERY NICE WOOD FLOORS AND UPGRADES. YOU ARE WALKING INTO A NICE SEPARATE LIVING, DINING AND FAMILY ROOM. THE FAMILY ROOM WHICH IS OVERLOOKED BY THE NICE KITCHEN OFFERS A FIREPLACE AND MORE. THIS HOME IS UNIQUE AND IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

Key facts

• Open patio
• Usable outdoor space
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• HIGH VAULTED CEILINGS
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN PATIO
• MATURE TROPICAL LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 68 parking spaces on the property; Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking (2 spaces); Concrete driveway
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale property; Faces east
• Construction: Block/Concrete/CBS construction; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Open patio; Patio; Shed/outbuilding for storage; Backyard fencing; Landscaped yard; Many trees; Room for a pool; Publicly maintained road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Owned water purifier; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; French doors; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the house

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($368/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 758 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $389k implies a 352% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,851 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,360
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 SW Pea Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-0%)	11mo	$400,000	$296	71
4657 SW Leeward St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+15%)	16mo	$370,000	$237	55
373 SW Columbus Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+6%)	21mo	$350,000	$243	54
135 SW Felix Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-14%)	10mo	$349,900	$299	50
4621 SW Darwin Blvd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+14%)	23mo	$395,990	$255	48
4323 SW Otto Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+14%)	16mo	$427,990	$276	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-69,458
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-90,506
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34953

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 758
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,823/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,980

Max offer price $389,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $141	+0% $31	+5% $-79	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-89	+0% $31	+5% $150	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $130	base $31	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
393 SW Tarra Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	22d	1	0.26mi
4481 SW Darlington St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,700	$1.50	15d	1	0.69mi
223 SW Elderberry Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$2,200	$1.79	24d	1	0.79mi
601 SW Icon Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,800	$2.02	22d	1	0.85mi
860 SW Bushel Trl Palm City, FL	3.0	2.5	1840	$3,750	$2.04	24d	1	0.89mi
864 SW Bushel Trl Palm City, FL	3.0	2.5	1855	$3,900	$2.10	24d	1	0.89mi
866 SW Bushel Trl Palm City, FL	3.0	2.5	1846	$3,900	$2.11	24d	1	0.89mi
4498 SW Port St Lucie Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1122	$2,500	$2.23	24d	1	0.93mi
511 SW Nadell Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,486	$1.36	15d	1	0.95mi
7808 SW Cline St Palm City, FL	3.0	2.5	1846	$4,000	$2.17	24d	1	1.00mi
930 SW Prairie Ave Palm City, FL	3.0	3.0	1834	$3,800	$2.07	24d	1	1.01mi
149 SW Becker Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1233	$2,400	$1.95	15d	1	1.13mi
459 SW Laconic Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1351	$2,670	$1.98	15d	1	1.15mi
4285 SW Walker St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,476	$1.35	15d	1	1.29mi
4262 SW Jared St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,350	$1.90	24d	1	1.29mi
962 SW Kappa Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$3,000	$2.35	24d	1	1.41mi
269 SW Ridgecrest Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,595	$1.49	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
17. 2026-05-30
    listed $389,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,229 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,405/yr (+$117/mo · 77.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$1,823
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,898
• − Management: −$2,898
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$6,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,548
• After-tax cash flow: $1,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 86,875
• Household income: $85,667
• Rent vs Own: 13.1% rent · 86.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 23% Two or more races 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 392.7681
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6383.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $389,000 Beaches MLS
• 2011-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-18 Sold (MLS) $86,000 Beaches MLS
• 2011-03-10 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2010-11-08 Listed $90,000 Beaches MLS
• 2006-06-28 Sold (MLS) $73,000 Beaches MLS
• 2006-06-17 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2006-04-25 Listed $74,900 Beaches MLS
• 2006-03-03 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2006-01-10 Listed $89,900 Beaches MLS
• 2002-06-28 Sold (MLS) $6,000 Beaches MLS
• 2002-05-28 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2002-03-04 Listed $6,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,823 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.