10506 Settlers Xing · Conroe, TX 77303

$155,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2019 Fair condition 1.61 ac lot $78/sqft · 41% below area Est $262k · 41% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! Country living at its best. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sitting on almost 2 acres is calling you home. Upon entering you will notice a modern and open floor plan with hard flooring throughout and tall ceilings. The large kitchen oversees the dining room and living room which features a custom built in entertainment area. The secondary bedrooms are large and have spacious closets. The oversized primary bedroom is attached to an ensuite with dual sinks, ample storage, soaking tub and walk in shower. This home has massive potential for many uses and is being sold AS IS. Call today for more information and a private showing before this opportunity passes you by!

Key facts

• Tall ceilings
• Soaking tub
• Hard flooring

Tags

• MODERN OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HARD FLOORING
• TALL CEILINGS
• ENSUITE WITH DUAL SINKS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.90%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,766
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -40.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10991 Fm 1484 Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (-6%)	8mo	$175,000	$94	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,555
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,690
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$451 /mo · $5,413/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,682

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $155,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    status Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    WOW! Country living at its best. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sitting on almost 2 acres is calling you home. Upon entering you will notice a modern and open floor plan with hard flooring throughout and tall ceilings. The large kitchen oversees the dining room and living room which features a custom built in entertainment area. The secondary bedrooms are large and have spacious closets. The oversized primary bedroom is attached to an ensuite with dual sinks, ample storage, soaking tub and walk in shower. This home has massive potential for many uses and is being sold AS IS. Call today for more information and a private showing before this opportunity passes you by!

15. 2026-05-11
    status Pending 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    WOW! Country living at its best. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sitting on almost 2 acres is calling you home. Upon entering you will notice a modern and open floor plan with hard flooring throughout and tall ceilings. The large kitchen oversees the dining room and living room which features a custom built in entertainment area. The secondary bedrooms are large and have spacious closets. The oversized primary bedroom is attached to an ensuite with dual sinks, ample storage, soaking tub and walk in shower. This home has massive potential for many uses and is being sold AS IS. Call today for more information and a private showing before this opportunity passes you by!

16. 2026-05-01
    price $160,000 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    WOW! Country living at its best. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sitting on almost 2 acres is calling you home. Upon entering you will notice a modern and open floor plan with hard flooring throughout and tall ceilings. The large kitchen oversees the dining room and living room which features a custom built in entertainment area. The secondary bedrooms are large and have spacious closets. The oversized primary bedroom is attached to an ensuite with dual sinks, ample storage, soaking tub and walk in shower. This home has massive potential for many uses and is being sold AS IS. Call today for more information and a private showing before this opportunity passes you by!

17. 2026-04-20
    price $170,000 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    WOW! Country living at its best. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sitting on almost 2 acres is calling you home. Upon entering you will notice a modern and open floor plan with hard flooring throughout and tall ceilings. The large kitchen oversees the dining room and living room which features a custom built in entertainment area. The secondary bedrooms are large and have spacious closets. The oversized primary bedroom is attached to an ensuite with dual sinks, ample storage, soaking tub and walk in shower. This home has massive potential for many uses and is being sold AS IS. Call today for more information and a private showing before this opportunity passes you by!

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $180,000 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    WOW! Country living at its best. This spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sitting on almost 2 acres is calling you home. Upon entering you will notice a modern and open floor plan with hard flooring throughout and tall ceilings. The large kitchen oversees the dining room and living room which features a custom built in entertainment area. The secondary bedrooms are large and have spacious closets. The oversized primary bedroom is attached to an ensuite with dual sinks, ample storage, soaking tub and walk in shower. This home has massive potential for many uses and is being sold AS IS. Call today for more information and a private showing before this opportunity passes you by!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,413 · $451/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,413 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$5,413
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$403
• After-tax cash flow: $3,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home offers a spacious floor plan with modern amenities, but it requires some cosmetic updates and maintenance to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — There are minor stains and scuffs on the interior walls.
• Minor Landscaping — There is some overgrowth and debris on the property.
• Minor HVAC maintenance — No maintenance record is visible, and the system appears to be functioning but may need a check-up.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and yard work — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value.
• Both HVAC maintenance and tune-up — A functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve the home's value.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · There are minor stains and scuffs on the interior walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · There is some overgrowth and debris on the property.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC maintenance · No maintenance record is visible, and the system appears to be functioning but may need a check-up.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior and exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard work — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance and tune-up — A functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve the home's value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,413 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.