14906 Quaking Aspen Dr · Tomball, TX 77377

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1970 0.51 ac lot Est $302k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a spacious over 1/2 acre lot near 249 and Brown road, this charming ranch-style home boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2 car tandem garage. Recently updated with a new roof and freshly painted interior, the property features a living, dining, and family room, along with a generously sized kitchen overlooking the country-style backyard. With a convenient location just a few miles from downtown Tomball, this well-maintained home offers a peaceful retreat for its new owners.

Key facts

• 1/2 acre lot
• New roof
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• 1/2 ACRE LOT
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer and septic tank options
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (single level)
• Construction: Built in 1970; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Partial fence; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 13x13, 14x14, 14x14)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($377/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 730 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,866 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,016
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14906 Quaking Aspen Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,936 (0%)	1mo	$259,900	$134	99
14808 Brown Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,936 (0%)	11mo	$485,000	$251	68
31114 Stella Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,992 (+3%)	4mo	$326,000	$164	61
31210 Stella Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,076 (+7%)	1mo	$335,000	$161	55
31111 Alice Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,938 (+0%)	12mo	$289,900	$150	55
14722 Brown Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,743 (-10%)	9mo	$250,000	$143	52
31107 Alice Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,120 (+10%)	10mo	$330,000	$156	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-46,627
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-63,201
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 730
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,001/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,179

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $105	+0% $31	+5% $-42	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-56	+0% $31	+5% $119	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $98	base $31	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1130 Tomball Downs Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,626	$1.68	0d	4	1.44mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-10
   price $259,900
4. 2025-12-30
   price $295,000
5. 2025-10-15
   listed $349,900 Active
6. 2010-10-01
   soldstatus
7. 2009-10-08
   historical
8. 2009-09-09
   listed $139,900
9. 2007-12-11
   soldstatus
10. 2007-08-29
    soldstatus
11. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,001 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,756 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,755/yr (+$146/mo · 58.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,001
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$4,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$973
• After-tax cash flow: $1,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2010-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-09-09 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2007-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,001 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.