12318 Sunset Canyon Way · Willis, TX 77318

$258,410

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,993 sqft · Land · 110 Days on market

Built 2026 $130/sqft · at area comps Est $270k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42 cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 42 INCH CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C C Hardy El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 752 students, 83% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,109 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,957
• List price: $258,410
• Delta: -4.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-66,537
• Equity at exit: $38,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-104,259
• Equity at exit: $22,343

Cash invested: $72,355 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1202
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,355
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$323 /mo · $3,876/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,329

Max offer price $215,223

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-209	+0% $-298	+5% $-388	+10% $-477
Rent	-10% $-453	-5% $-376	+0% $-298	+5% $-221	+10% $-144
Rate	-1.0pp $-168	-0.5pp $-233	base $-298	+0.5pp $-365	+1.0pp $-434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,602
• Closing costs: $7,752
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9700 FM 1097 Rd W Willis, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$1,455	$1.30	0d	6	0.21mi
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	46d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $258,410 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $258,410 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,410 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,410 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,410 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,410 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,410 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,410 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,410 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,410 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $258,410 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,410 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,410 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,410 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,410 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $258,410 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42 cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

17. 2026-05-14
    price $258,410 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42” cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

18. 2026-05-01
    price $267,410 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42 cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

19. 2026-04-30
    price $267,410 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42” cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

20. 2026-03-09
    status Active 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42 cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

21. 2026-03-06
    historical 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42 cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

22. 2026-03-05
    status Active 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42 cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

23. 2026-03-05
    historical 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (902 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42 cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

24. 2026-03-04
    listed $254,992 Active 902-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42” cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

25. 2026-03-04
    listed $254,992 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    Welcome to the Brambling by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the new Enclave at Willis community in Willis! This two-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,993 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on an oversized cul-de-sac lot with a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. Inside, the open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen with a large island, granite countertops, 42” cabinets, subway tile backsplash, pendant lighting, farmhouse sink, and ample storage. Vinyl flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while upstairs includes carpet in the bedrooms with durable flooring in the bathrooms and laundry room. The primary suite offers a private retreat with an oversized walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath upstairs provide plenty of space for family or guests. Additional highlights include modern finishes, a spacious backyard, and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,475
• − Property taxes: −$3,876
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,517
• Taxable loss: −$8,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,954
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $258,410 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $258,410 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $267,410 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $267,410 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Listed $254,992 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Listed $254,992 HARMLS