554 Orbit · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$160,103

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1980 3,267 sqft lot $191/sqft · 36% below area Est $252k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 2/2 home with a garage offers comfort, flexibility, and an unbeatable location. Enjoy a fully fenced yard perfect for pets, play or relaxing evenings under the Texas sky. The climate controlled garage is a rare find ideal for protecting your vehicle, creating a workshop, or creating the ultimate man cave- You could also convert into additional living space. Located just minutes from the lake, and close to schools, local eateries, and everyday conveniences with easy access to New Braunfels and San Antonio, this home makes commuting and weekend adventures effortless. NO HOA- you have the freedom to truly make it your own. Whether you're looking for the perfect starter home or a smart rental investment, this property checks all the boxes. Please allow for 24 hour notice -

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Fully fenced yard
• 3,267 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CLIMATE CONTROLLED GARAGE
• MINUTES FROM THE LAKE
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO LOCAL EATERIES
• EASY ACCESS TO NEW BRAUNFELS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,693 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.00%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,756
• List price: $160,103
• Delta: -36.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1546 & 1558 Green Hl	0.29mi	2/2.0	912 (+9%)	10mo	$240,000	$263	60
420 Scenic Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	864 (+3%)	17mo	$225,000	$260	56
2147 Blueridge	0.64mi	1/1.5 (-1)	870 (+4%)	6mo	$425,000	$489	52
593 Wagon Wheel	0.71mi	2/1.0	936 (+11%)	14mo	$230,000	$246	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,198
• Equity at exit: $23,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,912
• Equity at exit: $13,843

Cash invested: $44,829 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$840
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $160,103

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,026
• Closing costs: $4,803
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1415 Glenn Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$1,550	$1.93	44d	1	0.15mi
668 Creekside Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,225	$1.25	44d	1	1.06mi
1314 Stagecoach Dr Unit 1564857P Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.0	839	$3,309	$3.94	2d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,103 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,103 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,103 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,103 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,103 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,103 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,103 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,103 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,103 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,103 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,103 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,103 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,103 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    status Back on Market 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    This charming 2/2 home with a garage offers comfort, flexibility, and an unbeatable location. Enjoy a fully fenced yard perfect for pets, play or relaxing evenings under the Texas sky. The climate controlled garage is a rare find ideal for protecting your vehicle, creating a workshop, or creating the ultimate man cave- You could also convert into additional living space. Located just minutes from the lake, and close to schools, local eateries, and everyday conveniences with easy access to New Braunfels and San Antonio, this home makes commuting and weekend adventures effortless. NO HOA- you have the freedom to truly make it your own. Whether you're looking for the perfect starter home or a smart rental investment, this property checks all the boxes. Please allow for 24 hour notice -

15. 2026-03-27
    historical Active Option 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    This charming 2/2 home with a garage offers comfort, flexibility, and an unbeatable location. Enjoy a fully fenced yard perfect for pets, play or relaxing evenings under the Texas sky. The climate controlled garage is a rare find ideal for protecting your vehicle, creating a workshop, or creating the ultimate man cave- You could also convert into additional living space. Located just minutes from the lake, and close to schools, local eateries, and everyday conveniences with easy access to New Braunfels and San Antonio, this home makes commuting and weekend adventures effortless. NO HOA- you have the freedom to truly make it your own. Whether you're looking for the perfect starter home or a smart rental investment, this property checks all the boxes. Please allow for 24 hour notice -

16. 2026-02-20
    listed $160,103 New 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    This charming 2/2 home with a garage offers comfort, flexibility, and an unbeatable location. Enjoy a fully fenced yard perfect for pets, play or relaxing evenings under the Texas sky. The climate controlled garage is a rare find ideal for protecting your vehicle, creating a workshop, or creating the ultimate man cave- You could also convert into additional living space. Located just minutes from the lake, and close to schools, local eateries, and everyday conveniences with easy access to New Braunfels and San Antonio, this home makes commuting and weekend adventures effortless. NO HOA- you have the freedom to truly make it your own. Whether you're looking for the perfect starter home or a smart rental investment, this property checks all the boxes. Please allow for 24 hour notice -

17. 2020-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,930 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,041/yr (+$87/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,968
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$801
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$4,658
• Taxable income: $595
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-02-20 Listed $160,103 LERA
• 2020-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,889 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.