4651 SW 44th Ln · Gainesville, FL 32608

$168,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1993 2,178 sqft lot $230/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The ideal townhome in the perfection location in walking distance to Celebration Point. Well located in the center of Gainesville just minutes to Butler Plaza, the Hospitals, and the University of Florida. This spacious 2 story townhome features two master suites both with there own bathroom and a half bath downstairs perfect for entertaining. Seller just upgraded the flooring on the stairs to luxury vinyl plank. Loft area upstairs making the best reading nook. Enjoy the maintenance free lifestyle of townhome living. Come see this week located townhome!

Key facts

• Loft area upstairs
• Upgraded flooring
• Luxury vinyl plank

Tags

• CENTER OF GAINESVILLE
• UPGRADED FLOORING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK
• LOFT AREA UPSTAIRS
• MAINTENANCE FREE LIFESTYLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,193
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,134
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32608

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,008/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,812

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4781 SW 36th Rd Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$2,340	$2.06	13d	61	0.46mi
6499 SW 44th Way Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	900	$2,162	$2.40	13d	13	1.25mi
4455 SW 34th St Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1033	$1,830	$1.77	13d	28	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $168,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $168,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-04-03
   price $168,000 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   The ideal townhome in the perfection location in walking distance to Celebration Point. Well located in the center of Gainesville just minutes to Butler Plaza, the Hospitals, and the University of Florida. This spacious 2 story townhome features two master suites both with there own bathroom and a half bath downstairs perfect for entertaining. Seller just upgraded the flooring on the stairs to luxury vinyl plank. Loft area upstairs making the best reading nook. Enjoy the maintenance free lifestyle of townhome living. Come see this week located townhome!

4. 2026-01-24
   listed $175,000 Active 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   The ideal townhome in the perfection location in walking distance to Celebration Point. Well located in the center of Gainesville just minutes to Butler Plaza, the Hospitals, and the University of Florida. This spacious 2 story townhome features two master suites both with there own bathroom and a half bath downstairs perfect for entertaining. Seller just upgraded the flooring on the stairs to luxury vinyl plank. Loft area upstairs making the best reading nook. Enjoy the maintenance free lifestyle of townhome living. Come see this week located townhome!

5. 2022-11-26
   price $164,750
6. 2022-11-19
   price $164,850
7. 2022-11-12
   price $164,900
8. 2022-11-05
   price $166,000
9. 2022-10-20
   price $168,000
10. 2022-09-16
    listed $175,000 Active
11. 2020-05-26
    soldstatus $115,000
12. 2020-05-22
    soldstatus $115,000
13. 2019-08-22
    listed $114,900
14. 2008-02-25
    historical
15. 2001-02-05
    listed $69,000
16. 1993-09-30
    soldstatus $41,900
17. 1993-07-08
    soldstatus $40,000
18. 1993-07-08
    soldstatus $40,000
19. 1992-07-28
    listed $41,900
20. 1991-10-04
    soldstatus $7,000
21. 1989-02-27
    soldstatus $154,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,008 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,008 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$3,008
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $2,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 54,566
• Household income: $61,588
• Rent vs Own: 58.7% rent · 41.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4709.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 13% Asian 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.91%
• Current HPI: 253.0629
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-26 Price Changed $164,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-19 Price Changed $164,850 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-12 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-05 Price Changed $166,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-16 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-22 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-22 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-02-05 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-09-30 Sold (MLS) $41,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1993-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1992-07-28 Listed $41,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $154,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,008 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.