866 Count #4 · Livingston, CA 95334

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 127 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $154k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2017 built manufactured home has been immaculately maintained. It offers a thoughtfully designed and spacious floor plan with three large bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The kitchen provides abundant cabinet space and opens to a dining area ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Plenty of windows throughout the home allow for beautiful natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. Outside, a spacious 8x10 storage shed is perfect for tools, hobbies, and extra supplies. There is also a well-covered two car carport and plenty of guest parking nearby. This turnkey home is in a quiet, clean, and friendly 55+ community that offers exceptional amenities, including a clubhous

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Spacious floor plan
• 8x10 storage shed

Tags

• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• 8X10 STORAGE SHED
• TWO CAR CARPORT
• GUEST PARKING
• CLUBHOUSE WITH A FULL KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $765
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required; Land lease for the park

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Monte Cristo Adult Community
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (model J239CT); Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 13 ft by 62 ft; Estimated living area
• Construction: Year built per assessor; Double-wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Community pool; Front yard landscaping with sprinklers and timer; Lawn and yard; Close to clubhouse; Street lighting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: First-story entry
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.0% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#359 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, commute F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.29%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,900
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1557 Monte Cristo Way	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-2%)	6mo	$160,000	$100	85
1565 Queen Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+7%)	6mo	$165,000	$95	81
1568 Queen Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-13%)	5mo	$137,000	$98	70
1330 Queen Way #27	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+10%)	7mo	$144,000	$81	64
824 Count Dr #1	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,793 (+11%)	14mo	$184,000	$103	64
1470 Queen Way #17	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+10%)	11mo	$165,000	$93	64
825 Knights Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+12%)	10mo	$170,000	$94	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,440
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $41,939
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95334

• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
336 1st St Livingston, CA	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	43d	1	0.92mi
505 East Ave Livingston, CA	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,100	$1.13	13d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-02-11
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,961
• − Management: −$1,961
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$779
• After-tax cash flow: $4,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #359
• US rank: #12317

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Livingston, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,198

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Asian 18% White 10% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada
• Languages at home: 26% English-only · Spanish 57% Other Indo-European 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -237.01%
• Current HPI: 275.9339
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $165,000 CRMLS