12933 SW Forli Way · Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$330,390

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,506 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 1,917 sqft lot $115/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy efficient townhome ready April 2026! This 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath open concept home offers 1,506 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring a central kitchen island, oversized upstairs loft, and a spacious primary suite with bath and walk in closet. Additional highlights include impact glass windows, spray foam insulation, and all appliances included. Ideally located in the Central Park community in the heart of Port St. Lucie, just minutes from shopping, schools, and hospitals, and built with energy efficient features for exceptional comfort and savings.

Key facts

• $115 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, community room, management/manager on site, pickleball courts, and street lights; HOA fee paid monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space; 1 covered space; 2 open parking spaces (3 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Townhouse; New construction; 2 stories; Entry-level living area; North-facing
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and frame; Composition/shingle roof; Model: Pompano; Builder: Meritage Homes
• Exterior features: Open porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total); 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Upstairs living area; Storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 835 students, 70% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); St. Lucie West Centennial High (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 2,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1149 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,274 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-47,377
• Equity at exit: $49,262

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-35,241
• Equity at exit: $28,566

Cash invested: $92,509 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1149
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,733
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,405/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,767

Max offer price $330,390

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $201	+0% $108	+5% $14	+10% $-80
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-7	+0% $108	+5% $222	+10% $337
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $192	base $108	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,598
• Closing costs: $9,912
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13138 SW Valletta Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1727	$2,685	$1.55	16d	25	0.06mi
12865 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,700	$1.61	23d	1	0.08mi
12845 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,800	$1.59	16d	1	0.09mi
9670 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,700	$1.80	16d	1	0.19mi
9796 SW Santini Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1929	$3,500	$1.81	16d	1	0.37mi
9509 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,800	$1.86	25d	1	0.37mi
12271 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	25d	1	0.44mi
12134 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	25d	1	0.51mi
12500 Roma Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,657	$2.74	16d	7	0.62mi
11590 SW Roma Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1179	$3,071	$2.60	16d	36	0.76mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	23d	1	0.79mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	25d	1	0.79mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 9-303 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,410	$2.15	16d	1	0.79mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 7-105 Port St. Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,660	$2.10	16d	1	0.79mi
12813 SW Ambra St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1828	$3,200	$1.75	16d	1	0.85mi
9184 SW Esule Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,750	$1.54	16d	1	0.97mi
9084 SW Arco Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,500	$2.11	25d	1	1.00mi
11344 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$3,700	$1.74	16d	1	1.06mi
9630 SW Flowermound Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,495	$1.42	16d	1	1.06mi
14058 SW Surina St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,990	$1.58	16d	1	1.10mi
11477 SW Patterson St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,600	$1.58	25d	1	1.10mi
11267 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1667	$3,200	$1.92	25d	1	1.13mi
10936 SW Vasari Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.5	2100	$3,450	$1.64	16d	1	1.13mi
10057 SW Newberry Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,500	$1.52	23d	1	1.14mi
10231 SW Latium Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,900	$2.30	25d	1	1.16mi
11160 SW Lunata Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1968	$3,850	$1.96	25d	1	1.18mi
14143 SW Safi Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,900	$1.76	16d	1	1.22mi
9728 SW Eastbrook Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,300	$1.73	16d	1	1.24mi
12401 SW Arabella Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,650	$1.38	25d	1	1.26mi
14075 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,800	$1.46	25d	1	1.26mi
10495 SW Orana Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$3,000	$1.81	25d	1	1.29mi
14122 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,700	$1.61	16d	1	1.30mi
14162 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1754	$2,650	$1.51	25d	1	1.30mi
10736 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,700	$1.38	25d	1	1.31mi
9282 SW Miracoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$4,900	$2.54	25d	1	1.33mi
10574 SW Cambria Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$3,000	$1.57	25d	1	1.35mi
10695 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,850	$1.49	16d	1	1.38mi
10241 SW Newberry Ave Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1448	$2,905	$2.01	16d	29	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   price $330,390
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $325,390 Active
4. 2025-10-08
   soldstatus $11,550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,405 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,742 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,507
• − Property taxes: −$2,405
• − Insurance: −$1,652
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,787
• − Management: −$2,787
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$9,611
• Taxable loss: −$4,295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $2,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 597.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $330,390 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $325,390 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $11,550,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+249.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,405 · +718.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.