901 Independence Trl · Josephine, TX 75173

$309,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,407 sqft · Land · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 $128/sqft · 341% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into your next home and be greeted by a flex room and the stairs leading to the second floor. As you continue through the main level, you'll find the kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a back patio located just off the dining space. On the opposite side of the family room, there's a powder bath, coat closet, mudroom, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a loft connects three additional bedrooms-one featuring a walk-in closet-and a shared full bath. A laundry room is conveniently located across from the third bedroom. On the opposite side of the loft, you'll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Walk-in closet
• Powder bath

Tags

• BACK PATIO
• POWDER BATH
• COAT CLOSET
• MUDROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,108 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,000
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: 341.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $159,681
• Equity at exit: $278,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $476,576
• Equity at exit: $600,319

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,319

Max offer price $285,549

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-45	+0% $-133	+5% $-220	+10% $-308
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-218	+0% $-133	+5% $-48	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-54	base $-133	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.57mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.81mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.81mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.84mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	1.05mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	1.10mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	1.13mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	1.15mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	1.18mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	1.19mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	6d	1	1.23mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	1.24mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	1.24mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	26d	1	1.31mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	1.37mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	1.37mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	1.38mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	1.40mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	14d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $309,000 667-char remark

   Show marketing remark (667 chars)

   Step into your next home and be greeted by a flex room and the stairs leading to the second floor. As you continue through the main level, you'll find the kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a back patio located just off the dining space. On the opposite side of the family room, there's a powder bath, coat closet, mudroom, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a loft connects three additional bedrooms-one featuring a walk-in closet-and a shared full bath. A laundry room is conveniently located across from the third bedroom. On the opposite side of the loft, you'll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

2. 2026-04-09
   price $313,490 667-char remark

   Show marketing remark (667 chars)

   Step into your next home and be greeted by a flex room and the stairs leading to the second floor. As you continue through the main level, you'll find the kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a back patio located just off the dining space. On the opposite side of the family room, there's a powder bath, coat closet, mudroom, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a loft connects three additional bedrooms-one featuring a walk-in closet-and a shared full bath. A laundry room is conveniently located across from the third bedroom. On the opposite side of the loft, you'll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

3. 2026-03-06
   listed $311,490 Active 667-char remark

   Show marketing remark (667 chars)

   Step into your next home and be greeted by a flex room and the stairs leading to the second floor. As you continue through the main level, you'll find the kitchen, dining area, and family room, with a back patio located just off the dining space. On the opposite side of the family room, there's a powder bath, coat closet, mudroom, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a loft connects three additional bedrooms-one featuring a walk-in closet-and a shared full bath. A laundry room is conveniently located across from the third bedroom. On the opposite side of the loft, you'll find the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,655 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,660/yr (+$388/mo · 468.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$7,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,717
• After-tax cash flow: $124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $309,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $313,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Listed $311,490 Zillow

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $995 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.