12474 Hackberry Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$256,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 2011 8,629 sqft lot $107/sqft · 17% below area Est $310k · 17% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lowest price per square foot in the neighborhood—an incredible opportunity in the desirable lake-area community of Lake Conroe Hills. This spacious home offers a versatile floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a formal dining room, four bedrooms, and two and a half baths with plenty of room to live, gather, and grow. The two-car garage, storage building and fenced backyard provide comfort, convenience, and functionality, while the generous layout offers flexibility to suit a variety of lifestyles. Located in a community known for its charm and proximity to Lake Conroe, you’ll enjoy the benefits of lake-area living with easy access to nearby amenities. Opportunities like this—space, location, and value—don’t come along often. Schedule your showing today and experience all this home has to offer.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Fenced backyard
• Two-car garage

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,768 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,676
• List price: $256,500
• Delta: -17.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13154 Crestview Cir	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,364 (-1%)	10mo	$340,000	$144	82
12390 Green Ridge Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,194 (-8%)	10mo	$345,000	$157	67
14030 Shoreline Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,352 (-2%)	4mo	$825,000	$351	61
12672 Lake Conroe Hls	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,068 (-14%)	9mo	$349,000	$169	61
13185 Bluff View Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,106 (-12%)	10mo	$425,000	$202	57
13239 Bluff View Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,096 (-12%)	1mo	$325,000	$155	57
12475 Ridgecrest Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,106 (-12%)	14mo	$290,000	$138	56
13281 Lazy Ln	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,187 (-8%)	16mo	$359,900	$165	51
13690 Shoreline Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,147 (-10%)	10mo	$620,000	$289	50
13991 Shoreline Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,091 (-12%)	6mo	$350,000	$167	48
12251 Lake Conroe Hls	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,084 (-13%)	14mo	$355,990	$171	47
11925 Summer Oak Trl	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+7%)	16mo	$314,000	$123	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,004
• Equity at exit: $38,245

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-106,709
• Equity at exit: $22,177

Cash invested: $71,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,345
• Tax from tax record: −$509 /mo · $6,114/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,511

Max offer price $202,768

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,125
• Closing costs: $7,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12757 Lake Conroe Hills Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,800	$1.07	43d	1	0.29mi
13285 Lake Breeze Ln Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,466	$0.88	43d	1	0.32mi
12983 Skyline Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$2,250	$1.33	17d	1	0.33mi
13349 Bunker Hill Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,800	$1.05	43d	1	0.41mi
11962 Wisteria Meadows Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,785	$1.07	43d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $256,500 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-03-20
   price $256,500 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   Lowest price per square foot in the neighborhood—an incredible opportunity in the desirable lake-area community of Lake Conroe Hills. This spacious home offers a versatile floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a formal dining room, four bedrooms, and two and a half baths with plenty of room to live, gather, and grow. The two-car garage, storage building and fenced backyard provide comfort, convenience, and functionality, while the generous layout offers flexibility to suit a variety of lifestyles. Located in a community known for its charm and proximity to Lake Conroe, you’ll enjoy the benefits of lake-area living with easy access to nearby amenities. Opportunities like this—space, location, and value—don’t come along often. Schedule your showing today and experience all this home has to offer.

3. 2025-12-16
   listed $270,000 Active 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   Lowest price per square foot in the neighborhood—an incredible opportunity in the desirable lake-area community of Lake Conroe Hills. This spacious home offers a versatile floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring a formal dining room, four bedrooms, and two and a half baths with plenty of room to live, gather, and grow. The two-car garage, storage building and fenced backyard provide comfort, convenience, and functionality, while the generous layout offers flexibility to suit a variety of lifestyles. Located in a community known for its charm and proximity to Lake Conroe, you’ll enjoy the benefits of lake-area living with easy access to nearby amenities. Opportunities like this—space, location, and value—don’t come along often. Schedule your showing today and experience all this home has to offer.

4. 2024-06-18
   historical
5. 2024-06-12
   price $249,000
6. 2024-06-07
   price $275,000
7. 2024-05-30
   price $289,900
8. 2024-05-18
   listed $309,900 Active
9. 2018-04-25
   soldstatus
10. 2009-11-19
    historical
11. 2008-12-08
    listed $14,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,114 · $509/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,114 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,368
• − Property taxes: −$6,114
• − Insurance: −$1,282
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$7,462
• Taxable loss: −$8,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1610.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $256,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-18 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2018-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-11-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-12-08 Listed $14,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+27.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,114 · -8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.