18107 Saint Aubin St · Detroit, MI 48234

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 993 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1956 5,663 sqft lot $45/sqft · at area comps Est $46k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special! Solid 3 bedroom brick ranch with a full basement. Tenant occupied at present. The tenants are moving out at the end of May. No shows until June 1. Property needs some TLC, roof, windows and updating but is livable. No garage. This awesome deal won't last long!

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1k; list at $45k implies a 4390% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,226 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.51%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,423
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -3.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17888 Marx St	0.17mi	3/1.0	937 (-6%)	2mo	$34,000	$36	81
18128 Fleming St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-4%)	1mo	$21,500	$23	80
18547 Anglin St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+1%)	6mo	$93,000	$93	77
17569 Orleans St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,002 (+1%)	6mo	$85,000	$85	77
17489 Saint Aubin St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,072 (+8%)	6mo	$70,000	$65	66
18877 Fleming St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	870 (-12%)	3mo	$9,900	$11	57
17138 Marx St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,089 (+10%)	2mo	$26,500	$24	55
19163 Orleans St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+9%)	2mo	$32,500	$30	55
17139 Mackay St	0.62mi	3/1.0	896 (-10%)	1mo	$30,000	$33	54
19365 Goddard St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+11%)	1mo	$97,500	$89	51
17955 Charest St	0.59mi	3/1.0	880 (-11%)	4mo	$51,800	$59	50
18660 Klinger St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	880 (-11%)	0mo	$21,000	$24	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $34,775
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.97×
• Total profit: $100,141
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48234

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,992/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $532

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $607	-5% $594	+0% $582	+5% $569	+10% $556
Rent	-10% $481	-5% $531	+0% $582	+5% $632	+10% $682
Rate	-1.0pp $604	-0.5pp $593	base $582	+0.5pp $570	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18551 Saint Aubin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	962	$1,200	$1.25	17d	1	0.14mi
18084 Goddard St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	790	$1,050	$1.33	17d	1	0.22mi
18629 Fleming St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	900	$1,150	$1.28	25d	1	0.25mi
18882 Marx St Highland Park, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.33mi
18666 Joseph Campau St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	17d	1	0.54mi
13929 Arlington St Unit 2 Hamtramck, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	44d	1	0.87mi
19360 Revere St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	25d	1	0.97mi
19694 Gallagher St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	15d	1	1.04mi
19450 Norwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	5d	1	1.06mi
18662 Sunset St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	726	$1,250	$1.72	18d	1	1.12mi
19703 Keating St Highland Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	1.25mi
20255 Harned St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,374	$1.37	17d	1	1.29mi
406 W Goldengate St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	44d	1	1.30mi
404 W Golden Gate Highland Park, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	44d	1	1.30mi
19930 Binder St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	17d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $44,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $44,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $44,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $54,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $54,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-08
   listed $54,900 Active 278-char remark
7. 2026-05-08
   listed $54,900 Active 278-char remark
8. 2026-05-08
   listed $54,900 Active
9. 2014-10-10
   soldstatus $1,000
10. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus $1,000
11. 2014-08-29
    listed $1,000
12. 2014-08-29
    listed $1,000
13. 2014-08-29
    historical
14. 2000-04-07
    soldstatus $8,749

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,992
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $6,744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,619
• After-tax cash flow: $5,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 32,760
• Household income: $35,322
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2372.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% White 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.65%
• Current HPI: 328.8978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.72%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+413.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $44,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $47,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-08 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-10 Sold (MLS) $1,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-10 Sold (MLS) $1,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-08-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-08-29 Listed $1,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-08-29 Listed $1,000 REALCOMP
• 2000-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $8,749 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,992 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.