710 County Road 2865 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2000 7,492 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Get instant equity with this hidden gem nestled along the river in peaceful Cleveland, TX. This serene retreat offers the perfect opportunity to be fully immersed in nature—surrounded by majestic trees, calming water, and abundant wildlife. Whether you're looking for a quiet getaway or a place to call home, this property has the charm and potential to become something truly special. With a little vision and effort, this property can be transformed into your perfect escape. The property comes with no restrictions, offering freedom and flexibility for future improvements or additions. Sold as is. All information and dimensions to be confirmed by buyer.

Key facts

• Abundant wildlife
• Calming water
• 7,492 sq ft lot

Tags

• SURROUNDED BY MAJESTIC TREES
• CALMING WATER
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking; Space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Creek on the property; See remarks for additional exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: See remarks for appliances and kitchen details
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: See remarks for heating details
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; See remarks for additional interior, window, and accessibility features
• Laundry & utility: See remarks for laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.4% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.34%
• DSCR: 4.04
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $12,896
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $41,982
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $977/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $45,000
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $49,900 Active
4. 2011-03-01
   soldstatus
5. 2005-06-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $977 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $977 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$977
• − Insurance: −$5,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$791
• After-tax cash flow: $2,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $45,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $49,900 Unlock MLS
• 2011-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $977 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.