21819 Honey Scent Ln · Houston, TX 77433

$299,255

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,601 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,838 sqft lot $187/sqft · at area comps Est $313k · at est. $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Primrose Plan - This amazing one-story plan features an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the spacious foyer into the great room, home office, casual dining area, and gourmet kitchen. The kitchen boasts a GE 30" Free-Standing Gas Range, Groveland Poplar Grey Wolf cabinetry, Everest Mist granite countertops, and Mythology Santorini Picket Mosaic tile backsplash. Retreat to the primary suite, which includes a dual sink vanity and walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a covered patio, a convenient laundry room, and a 2-bay garage Mason Woods by Tri Pointe Homes is your oasis of luxury living and community. Amenities include a Recreation Center, Fitness Center, Resort-style pool, miles of trails, Central playgrounds, and sparkling lakes. Discover the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this idyllic neighborhood setting.

Key facts

• 6,838 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Postma El (math 45% / reading 59%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 1,247 students, 45% FRL); Smith Middle (math 79% / reading 78%, grade A+, #19 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,057 students, 14% FRL); Cypress Springs H S (math 35% / reading 60%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,788 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,023 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.57%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,810
• List price: $299,255
• Delta: -4.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21822 Black Tulip Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+2%)	1mo	$309,605	$190	95
7919 Sunny Lily Loop	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+1%)	1mo	$319,925	$197	83
7811 Summer Solstice St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+1%)	1mo	$331,190	$205	82
21815 Coral Mist Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (+5%)	1mo	$309,138	$185	81
8218 Blue Shell Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+4%)	1mo	$340,990	$204	80
8102 Magnolia Prairie Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (+5%)	1mo	$324,890	$194	79
8122 Kay Harbor Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,744 (+9%)	0mo	$346,990	$199	70
21807 Honey Scent Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+15%)	1mo	$334,935	$182	68
21815 White Bellflower Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-8%)	1mo	$275,000	$186	67
8214 Blue Shell Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+10%)	1mo	$324,990	$185	67
21330 Cypress River Oak Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+9%)	1mo	$274,000	$157	52
7530 Primrose Myrtle Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,825 (+14%)	1mo	$312,845	$171	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-67,125
• Equity at exit: $44,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-100,950
• Equity at exit: $25,874

Cash invested: $83,791 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2065
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,569
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,489/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,708

Max offer price $273,252

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-76	+0% $-180	+5% $-283	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-278	+0% $-180	+5% $-82	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-104	base $-180	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,814
• Closing costs: $8,978
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1730	$2,475	$1.43	45d	1	0.46mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1743	$2,390	$1.37	45d	1	0.51mi
7546 Coral Terrace Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2050	$2,699	$1.32	45d	1	0.75mi
21114 Montego Bay Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,499	$1.18	45d	1	0.85mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	14d	21	0.94mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	45d	1	0.96mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	45d	1	0.98mi
21010 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,768	$1.28	45d	1	1.04mi
22025 Avalon Landing Ln Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,663	$2.79	0d	12	1.09mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,205	$2.21	0d	28	1.11mi
21034 Shore Oak Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2110	$2,950	$1.40	45d	1	1.11mi
21038 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,491	$1.31	45d	1	1.14mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,450	$1.37	0d	41	1.22mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	45d	1	1.24mi
21815 Sunshine Cove Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,650	$1.49	45d	1	1.39mi
6747 Scarlet Sagebrush St Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,300	$1.50	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $299,255 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,255 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,255 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,255 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,255 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,255 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,255 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-04-20
   listed $354,255 Active 866-char remark

   Show marketing remark (866 chars)

   The Primrose Plan - This amazing one-story plan features an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly from the spacious foyer into the great room, home office, casual dining area, and gourmet kitchen. The kitchen boasts a GE 30" Free-Standing Gas Range, Groveland Poplar Grey Wolf cabinetry, Everest Mist granite countertops, and Mythology Santorini Picket Mosaic tile backsplash. Retreat to the primary suite, which includes a dual sink vanity and walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a covered patio, a convenient laundry room, and a 2-bay garage Mason Woods by Tri Pointe Homes is your oasis of luxury living and community. Amenities include a Recreation Center, Fitness Center, Resort-style pool, miles of trails, Central playgrounds, and sparkling lakes. Discover the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this idyllic neighborhood setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,489
• − Insurance: −$1,496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$8,706
• Taxable loss: −$7,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,753
• After-tax cash flow: $-403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value.
• Both Install smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $354,255 HARMLS