140 Navajo Ln · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1991 Fair condition 0.29 ac lot $93/sqft · 61% above area $193/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO THE ''PONDEROSA'' THIS 2 BEDROOM, PLUS LOFT 1991 PARK MODEL WITH A HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH IS READY FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT!! Newer roof and an updated interior with plenty of storage with the two storage sheds and under the bed storage area gives you plenty room! Outside is ready to go, the double corner lot is graveled, and the lots come with many outdoor cabanas for entertainment! A beautiful pond and 20 ' foot green area surrounds this trailer for ultimate privacy! The best lot in all of Trails End, walking distance to the clubhouse and pool!

Key facts

• Double corner lot
• Newer roof
• Outdoor cabanas

Tags

• HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH
• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• DOUBLE CORNER LOT
• OUTDOOR CABANAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.29 acres with additional gravelled parcel(s); Zoning listed as Commercial with Residential description; Property located in the Trails End subdivision; directions available from I-84 (Milford)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fees; Annual association fee approximately $2,320 (also a one-time fee of $1,660 noted); Monthly equivalent association fee about $193.33; Association covers electricity, water, trash, sewer, and security; Community amenities: gated entrance, clubhouse, pool, recreation room, playground, picnic area, basketball court, shuffleboard court, trash service

Exterior

• Utilities: Water included in association fees; Electricity included in association fees; Sewer included in association fees; Trash service included in association fees
• Home design: Residential property; Vacation RV/Trailer subtype; Attached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; About 700 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Gas grill; RV hookup; Enclosed and screened patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Free-standing refrigerator; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 5.9% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.69%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,306
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 61.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 Shohola Pkwy N	0.23mi	2/1.0	700 (0%)	10mo	$32,000	$46	81
122 Dakota Ln Lot 3434	0.28mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (0%)	11mo	$50,000	$71	73
Lot 1626 Opossum	0.17mi	2/1.5	700 (0%)	21mo	$46,000	$66	73
113 Navajo Ln	0.17mi	2/1.0	700 (0%)	24mo	$42,000	$60	72
117 Owego Ln	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	690 (-1%)	10mo	$35,000	$51	63
144 Cardinal Ln Lot 1941	0.43mi	2/1.0	700 (0%)	22mo	$45,000	$64	62
137 Shohola Pkwy N	0.30mi	2/1.0	650 (-7%)	18mo	$31,500	$48	59
405 Shohola Ln Lot 405 Shohola Ln	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	700 (0%)	23mo	$80,000	$114	55
3730 Shohola Pkwy S	0.49mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (0%)	21mo	$31,000	$44	54
145 Shohola Pkwy N Lot 2102	0.26mi	2/1.0	600 (-14%)	13mo	$30,000	$50	53
114 Tribes Dr	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (-14%)	13mo	$35,500	$59	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $71,948
• Equity at exit: $58,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.08×
• Total profit: $183,527
• Equity at exit: $126,281

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$193
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $813

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $617	-5% $594	+0% $572	+5% $549	+10% $527
Rent	-10% $450	-5% $511	+0% $572	+5% $632	+10% $693
Rate	-1.0pp $604	-0.5pp $588	base $572	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $193 · $2,316/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $65,000 Active 766-char remark
16. 2025-06-11
    status Active
17. 2025-05-20
    price $80,000
18. 2024-08-08
    price $85,000
19. 2024-06-27
    status Active
20. 2024-06-11
    status Pending
21. 2024-06-07
    listed $90,000 Active
22. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus $85,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ''PONDEROSA'' THIS 2 BEDROOM, PLUS LOFT 1991 PARK MODEL WITH A HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH IS READY FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT!! Newer roof and an updated interior with plenty of storage with the two storage sheds and under the bed storage area gives you plenty room! Outside is ready to go, the double corner lot is graveled, and the lots come with many outdoor cabanas for entertainment! A beautiful pond and 20 ' foot green area surrounds this trailer for ultimate privacy! The best lot in all of Trails End, walking distance to the clubhouse and pool!

23. 2023-09-07
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ''PONDEROSA'' THIS 2 BEDROOM, PLUS LOFT 1991 PARK MODEL WITH A HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH IS READY FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT!! Newer roof and an updated interior with plenty of storage with the two storage sheds and under the bed storage area gives you plenty room! Outside is ready to go, the double corner lot is graveled, and the lots come with many outdoor cabanas for entertainment! A beautiful pond and 20 ' foot green area surrounds this trailer for ultimate privacy! The best lot in all of Trails End, walking distance to the clubhouse and pool!

24. 2023-08-07
    price $87,000

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ''PONDEROSA'' THIS 2 BEDROOM, PLUS LOFT 1991 PARK MODEL WITH A HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH IS READY FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT!! Newer roof and an updated interior with plenty of storage with the two storage sheds and under the bed storage area gives you plenty room! Outside is ready to go, the double corner lot is graveled, and the lots come with many outdoor cabanas for entertainment! A beautiful pond and 20 ' foot green area surrounds this trailer for ultimate privacy! The best lot in all of Trails End, walking distance to the clubhouse and pool!

25. 2023-08-07
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ''PONDEROSA'' THIS 2 BEDROOM, PLUS LOFT 1991 PARK MODEL WITH A HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH IS READY FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT!! Newer roof and an updated interior with plenty of storage with the two storage sheds and under the bed storage area gives you plenty room! Outside is ready to go, the double corner lot is graveled, and the lots come with many outdoor cabanas for entertainment! A beautiful pond and 20 ' foot green area surrounds this trailer for ultimate privacy! The best lot in all of Trails End, walking distance to the clubhouse and pool!

26. 2023-08-06
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ''PONDEROSA'' THIS 2 BEDROOM, PLUS LOFT 1991 PARK MODEL WITH A HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH IS READY FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT!! Newer roof and an updated interior with plenty of storage with the two storage sheds and under the bed storage area gives you plenty room! Outside is ready to go, the double corner lot is graveled, and the lots come with many outdoor cabanas for entertainment! A beautiful pond and 20 ' foot green area surrounds this trailer for ultimate privacy! The best lot in all of Trails End, walking distance to the clubhouse and pool!

27. 2022-09-03
    listed $95,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ''PONDEROSA'' THIS 2 BEDROOM, PLUS LOFT 1991 PARK MODEL WITH A HEATED ENCLOSED PORCH IS READY FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT!! Newer roof and an updated interior with plenty of storage with the two storage sheds and under the bed storage area gives you plenty room! Outside is ready to go, the double corner lot is graveled, and the lots come with many outdoor cabanas for entertainment! A beautiful pond and 20 ' foot green area surrounds this trailer for ultimate privacy! The best lot in all of Trails End, walking distance to the clubhouse and pool!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − HOA: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $5,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This park model trailer is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed. Painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint is chipped in some areas.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown and in need of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Improves appearance and value.
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint is chipped in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and in need of maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Improves appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-31.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $65,000 PWMLS
• 2025-06-11 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $80,000 PWMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $85,000 PWMLS
• 2024-06-27 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2024-06-11 Pending — PWMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listed $90,000 PWMLS
• 2023-10-06 Sold (MLS) $85,000 PWMLS
• 2023-09-07 Pending — PWMLS
• 2023-08-07 Price Changed $87,000 PWMLS
• 2023-08-07 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2023-08-06 Pending — PWMLS
• 2022-09-03 Listed $95,000 PWMLS