1819 Lakeshore Dr · Pocono Pines, PA 18347

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1979 0.45 ac lot Est $256k · 49% under $92/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakeview & walk to beach. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Living room with hardwood floors. Kitchen with new stainless appliances & granite overlay. Family room. Double lot with detached garage, shed & more. Priced to sell. Sold with most furnishings and Golf Cart.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.0% in Pocono Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#532 in PA, #4,925 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 247 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $130k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.89%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Pima Pl	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-3%)	1mo	$158,000	$130	65
115 Squaw Trl	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,161 (-7%)	6mo	$263,298	$227	64
254 N Arrow Dr	0.58mi	3/3.0	1,258 (+1%)	2mo	$730,000	$580	62
303 Cheyenne Trl	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,308 (+5%)	1mo	$230,800	$176	60
117 Shawnee Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,222 (-2%)	6mo	$250,000	$205	56
195 Wyalusing Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-6%)	1mo	$150,000	$128	54
3145 Ogontz Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-4%)	6mo	$367,500	$306	51
323 Orono Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-12%)	5mo	$212,000	$193	50
2127 Totem Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	6mo	$229,000	$173	50
151 Towanda Trl	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,176 (-6%)	6mo	$269,298	$229	48
126 Shawnee Dr Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+10%)	2mo	$279,000	$204	43
233 Pontiac Path	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+13%)	4mo	$289,900	$206	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $24,030
• Equity at exit: $28,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $76,047
• Equity at exit: $27,440

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18347

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Iowa Trl Pocono Lake, PA	2.0	1.0	874	$1,675	$1.92	43d	1	0.69mi
257 Farmers Ln Pocono Lake, PA	3.0	2.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	13d	1	0.81mi
1111 Wissinoming Dr Pocono Lake, PA	3.0	2.5	1164	$2,060	$1.77	13d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2023-09-05
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-21
   historical
3. 2009-08-27
   soldstatus $85,000 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Lakeview & walk to beach. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Living room with hardwood floors. Kitchen with new stainless appliances & granite overlay. Family room. Double lot with detached garage, shed & more. Priced to sell. Sold with most furnishings and Golf Cart.

4. 2009-04-26
   historical
5. 2009-04-08
   listed $129,900

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Lakeview & walk to beach. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Living room with hardwood floors. Kitchen with new stainless appliances & granite overlay. Family room. Double lot with detached garage, shed & more. Priced to sell. Sold with most furnishings and Golf Cart.

6. 2009-04-08
   listed $129,900 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Lakeview & walk to beach. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Living room with hardwood floors. Kitchen with new stainless appliances & granite overlay. Family room. Double lot with detached garage, shed & more. Priced to sell. Sold with most furnishings and Golf Cart.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $5,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $5,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Pines

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #4925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 595
• Population (ZIP): 3,535

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.47%
• Current HPI: 202.3693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-34.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2023-09-05 Pending — LCAR
• 2023-08-21 Delisted — LCAR
• 2009-08-27 Sold (MLS) $85,000 PMAR
• 2009-04-26 Delisted — LCAR
• 2009-04-08 Listed $129,900 PMAR
• 2009-04-08 Listed $129,900 LCAR