104 Kieran Trce · Dothan, AL 36301

$263,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily · 112 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.32 ac lot 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 104 Kieran Trace, the Aria floorplan featured in our beautiful Halls Creek community in Dothan, Alabama. The Aria features 3-bedrooms, 2-bathrooms, and just over 1,600 square feet of desirable living space. As you walk in, you are greeted by the foyer with convenient access to a connecting bathroom with 2 spacious bedrooms, and the laundry room is conveniently across the way. Moving along, you are welcomed into the open concept living, dining, and kitchen space, perfect for everyday entertainment. The kitchen features a stunning island, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry which are sure to make meal preps easy. The island is the perfect spot for your guests to sit and dine. A covered porch is connected to the living space for seamless indoor-outdoor leisure. Tucked in the corner is the private primary suite that features a stunning bathroom with a double vanity sink with quartz countertops, a separate standing shower, a garden tub, and a large walk-in closet. In every bedroom you'll have carpeted floors and a closet. Like all homes in Halls Creek the Aria includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. Pictures may be of a similar home and not necessarily of the subject property. Pictures are representational only. Call one of our New Home Specialists today to schedule your tour!

Key facts

• Pantry
• Covered porch
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• STUNNING ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PANTRY
• COVERED PORCH
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $263,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,014.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Beverlye Intermediate School (math 6% / reading 25%, grade F, #503 of 627 statewide, top 80%, 388 students, 90% FRL); Dothan Preparatory Academy (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #163 of 257 statewide, top 64%, 1,133 students, 78% FRL); Dothan High School (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #163 of 305 statewide, top 54%, 1,454 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 59% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 620 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,968/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,785 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,014
• List price: $263,900
• Delta: -6.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Kieran Trce	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,618 (0%)	1mo	$270,900	$167	97
114 Kieran Trce	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,618 (0%)	6mo	$255,900	$158	92
121 Halls Creek Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,618 (0%)	15mo	$265,000	$164	80
504 Blackman Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	5mo	$218,000	$140	78
100 Oliver Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+10%)	3mo	$272,500	$154	69
204 Thistlewood Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,601 (-1%)	6mo	$219,000	$137	66
4001 Woodberry Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-1%)	14mo	$210,000	$131	61
128 Thistlewood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-12%)	13mo	$195,000	$137	45
113 Thistlewood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,385 (-14%)	7mo	$210,000	$152	45
103 Thistlewood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,493 (-8%)	19mo	$160,000	$107	44
576 Taylor Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+10%)	12mo	$223,000	$125	42
2017 Fern Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+14%)	13mo	$323,000	$175	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-70,182
• Equity at exit: $41,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-92,766
• Equity at exit: $24,297

Cash invested: $78,684 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,950 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 52 d
• This list price: 71% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36301

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,215/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $224,953

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-193	-5% $-290	+0% $-387	+5% $-485	+10% $-582
Rent	-10% $-543	-5% $-465	+0% $-387	+5% $-310	+10% $-232
Rate	-1.0pp $-246	-0.5pp $-316	base $-387	+0.5pp $-460	+1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,254
• Closing costs: $8,430
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Thistlewood Dr Headland, AL	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,350	$1.06	1d	1	0.54mi
103 Thistlewood Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,450	$0.97	1d	1	0.57mi
1605 Ivy Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1888	$3,400	$1.80	139d	1	0.70mi
306 Hidden Creek Cir #1 Dothan, AL	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,450	$1.18	139d	1	0.77mi
108 Jennie Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.5	1464	$1,900	$1.30	5d	1	0.82mi
109 Jennie Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,479	$1.75	5d	1	0.83mi
516 Sprucepine Rd Dothan, AL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,700	$1.03	5d	1	0.93mi
31 Trillium Cir Dothan, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,360	$1.47	1d	16	1.19mi
413 Christopher Dr Miami, AL	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,900	$1.96	139d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Halls Creek subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable available
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne levelNew construction
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveOvenRange
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: PantryWalk-in closet(s)Double-pane windowsGas water heaterSmoke detector(s)Security system
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $263,900 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $263,900 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $263,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $263,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $263,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $263,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $263,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $263,900 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $263,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $263,900 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $263,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $263,900 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $263,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $263,900 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $263,900 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $263,900 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $263,900 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $263,900 Active 87 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $263,900 Active 86 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $263,900 Active 85 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $263,900 Active 84 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $263,900 Active 83 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $263,900 Active 82 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $263,900 Active 81 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $263,900 Active 80 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $263,900 Active 79 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    price $263,900 Active 78 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $264,900 Active 78 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $264,900 Active 77 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $264,900 Active 76 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $264,900 Active 75 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $264,900 Active 74 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $264,900 Active 73 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $264,900 Active 72 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $264,900 Active 71 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $264,900 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $264,900 Active 69 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $264,900 Active 68 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $264,900 Active 67 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $264,900 Active 66 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $264,900 Active 65 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $264,900 Active 64 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $264,900 Active 63 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $264,900 Active 62 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 61 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 58 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $264,900 Active 56 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $264,900 Active 54 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    pricedays on market $264,900 Active 52 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $270,900 Active 50 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,741
• − Property taxes: −$4,215
• − Insurance: −$1,405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$8,175
• Taxable loss: −$9,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,328
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the interior walls and flooring to further enhance its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Fresh paint and updated flooring can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Beverlye Intermediate School F AL #503/627 Nat'l #36,161/41,679 High Dothan High School F AL #163/305 Nat'l #14,027/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• County: Houston · 110,280 people
• City population: 47,783
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,627
• Household income: $49,124
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 161.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Halls Creek subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable available
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne levelNew construction
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveOvenRange
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: PantryWalk-in closet(s)Double-pane windowsGas water heaterSmoke detector(s)Security system
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $270,900 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Listed $270,900 SAMLS