104 Kieran Trce · Dothan, AL 36301

$270,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.32 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 104 Kieran Trace, the Aria floorplan featured in our beautiful Halls Creek community in Dothan, Alabama. The Aria features 3-bedrooms, 2-bathrooms, and just over 1,600 square feet of desirable living space. As you walk in, you are greeted by the foyer with convenient access to a connecting bathroom with 2 spacious bedrooms, and the laundry room is conveniently across the way. Moving along, you are welcomed into the open concept living, dining, and kitchen space, perfect for everyday entertainment. The kitchen features a stunning island, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry which are sure to make meal preps easy. The island is the perfect spot for your gues

Key facts

• Pantry
• Covered porch
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• STUNNING ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PANTRY
• COVERED PORCH
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total spaces, 2 garage spaces)
• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; New construction; On waterfront
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Double-pane windows; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Gas water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $270,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $245,936.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Dothan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Selma Street Elementary School (math 13% / reading 33%, grade F, #431 of 627 statewide, top 69%, 413 students, 93% FRL); Dothan Preparatory Academy (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #163 of 257 statewide, top 64%, 1,133 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,814 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.67%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Kieran Trce	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,618 (0%)	2mo	$255,900	$158	94
121 Halls Creek Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,618 (0%)	12mo	$265,000	$164	82
504 Blackman Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	2mo	$218,000	$140	80
204 Thistlewood Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,601 (-1%)	3mo	$219,000	$137	68
219 Mairead Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,495 (-8%)	16mo	$249,900	$167	64
4001 Woodberry Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-1%)	11mo	$210,000	$131	64
421 Oliver Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+10%)	16mo	$282,000	$158	60
128 Thistlewood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-12%)	10mo	$195,000	$137	48
113 Thistlewood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,385 (-14%)	4mo	$210,000	$152	47
103 Thistlewood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,493 (-8%)	16mo	$160,000	$107	47
576 Taylor Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+10%)	8mo	$223,000	$125	44
2017 Fern Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+14%)	10mo	$323,000	$175	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-26,395
• Equity at exit: $36,670

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,554
• Equity at exit: $21,264

Cash invested: $68,862 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36301

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,689/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,151

Max offer price $245,936

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $296	+0% $211	+5% $126	+10% $41
Rent	-10% $20	-5% $115	+0% $211	+5% $306	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $273	base $211	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,484
• Closing costs: $7,378
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1605 Ivy Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1888	$3,400	$1.80	46d	1	0.70mi
306 Hidden Creek Cir #1 Dothan, AL	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,450	$1.18	46d	1	0.77mi
31 Trillium Cir Dothan, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$1,290	$1.35	46d	15	1.19mi
413 Christopher Dr Miami, AL	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,900	$1.96	46d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $270,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $270,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $270,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $270,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $270,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $270,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $270,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,776
• − Property taxes: −$3,689
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,321
• − Management: −$2,321
• − Depreciation: −$7,155
• Taxable loss: −$1,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$354
• After-tax cash flow: $2,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the interior walls and flooring to further enhance its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Fresh paint and updated flooring can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Fresh paint and updated flooring can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• City population: 47,783
• Population (ZIP): 38,627

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 161.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $270,900 SAMLS