821 William St · Hamburg, MN 55339

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1972 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained one-owner home with 3 bedrooms on same level, finished lower level with second kitchen, spacious lot with private backyard and patio.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#609 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Public School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #102 of 301 in MN (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 682 units permitted in Carver County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carver County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $225k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $163,219 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $104,978
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $323,041
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55339

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,504/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $176,200

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2026-04-07
   historical $225,000
5. 2011-09-29
   soldstatus $119,000
6. 2011-09-23
   soldstatus $119,000 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Well maintained one-owner home with 3 bedrooms on same level, finished lower level with second kitchen, spacious lot with private backyard and patio.

7. 2011-08-25
   historical 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Well maintained one-owner home with 3 bedrooms on same level, finished lower level with second kitchen, spacious lot with private backyard and patio.

8. 2011-07-01
   listed $119,000 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   Well maintained one-owner home with 3 bedrooms on same level, finished lower level with second kitchen, spacious lot with private backyard and patio.

9. 2011-06-30
   historical
10. 2011-03-24
    listed $119,000
11. 2011-03-23
    historical
12. 2010-09-23
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,504 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,504 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,504
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,325
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2723910
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,847
• Composite: 44.22/100
• National rank: #2847
• State rank: #102 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hamburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #609
• US rank: #14525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamburg, MN
• Population (ZIP): 934

Population outlook (Carver County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,077 people
• By 2030: 122,880 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 137,210 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 148,524 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 174,624 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 185,806 · +61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Italian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carver

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.4) · D 46.3% · R 51.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.7pp toward D · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.4 2020: R+4.9 2016: R+13.7 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.13%
• Current HPI: 260.5709
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-23 Sold (MLS) $119,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-01 Listed $119,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-24 Listed $119,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-23 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,504 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.