439 15th St #18 · Miami Beach, FL 33139

$225,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 493 sqft · Condo public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1935 $635/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful, move-in ready studio in the heart of South Beach! Just steps from Lincoln Road, Española Way, Flamingo Park, the public beach, and much more. This prime location offers abundant natural light and comes fully furnished and equipped. The building has been fully renovated, and the certification has been completed. A perfect opportunity to enjoy the best of South Beach living!

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Prime location
• Fully furnished

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• FULLY FURNISHED
• FULLY RENOVATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered; Pets allowed with possible restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $635; Association covers hot water, grounds maintenance, sewer and water

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Security: Fenced complex
• Utilities: Water service; Sewer service; Electric service
• Home design: Attached property; 2 stories; Second-floor entry
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Complex is fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Furnished; Second-floor entry; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($845/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,405/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4052% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 11742% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $154k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.19% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,513
• Equity at exit: $41,779

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-52,274
• Equity at exit: $33,891

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33139

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,412/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$635
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$715
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,316

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $635 · $7,620/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-05-04
   historical $1,900
7. 2026-04-16
   listed $1,900
8. 2026-04-09
   historical $2,000
9. 2026-03-07
   listed $2,000
10. 2026-03-04
    listed $225,000 Active
11. 2026-02-17
    historical
12. 2025-10-29
    price $230,000
13. 2025-09-12
    historical $1,900
14. 2025-08-20
    listed $1,900
15. 2025-08-20
    listed $235,000 Active
16. 2024-10-16
    historical $1,800
17. 2024-10-04
    listed $1,800
18. 2023-05-30
    historical
19. 2023-04-10
    status Active
20. 2023-04-03
    status Pending
21. 2023-03-23
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2023-03-20
    listed $250,000 Active
23. 2019-04-23
    soldstatus $154,000
24. 2019-04-15
    soldstatus $154,000 Sold
25. 2019-03-31
    status Pending
26. 2018-12-13
    listed $179,900 Active
27. 2018-12-10
    historical
28. 2018-05-21
    listed $209,900 Active
29. 2013-09-25
    soldstatus $181,500 Sold
30. 2013-08-28
    soldstatus $181,500
31. 2013-07-05
    status Pending
32. 2013-05-21
    price $190,000
33. 2004-04-21
    soldstatus $2,080,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,412 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,412 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,412
• − Insurance: −$6,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,269
• − Management: −$3,269
• − HOA: −$7,620
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$505
• After-tax cash flow: $1,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami Beach

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1672

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Beach, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 90,533
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,753
• Household income: $69,793
• Rent vs Own: 62.8% rent · 37.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4052.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 15% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 56% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.19%
• Current HPI: 277.9321
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Rental Removed $1,900 MARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,900 MARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $2,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed for Rent $2,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $225,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $230,000 MARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Rental Removed $1,900 MARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listed for Rent $1,900 MARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $235,000 MARMLS
• 2024-10-16 Rental Removed $1,800 MARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $1,800 MARMLS
• 2023-05-30 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2023-04-10 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2023-04-03 Pending — MARMLS
• 2023-03-23 Contingent — MARMLS
• 2023-03-20 Listed $250,000 MARMLS
• 2019-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-15 Sold (MLS) $154,000 MARMLS
• 2019-03-31 Pending — MARMLS
• 2018-12-13 Listed $179,900 MARMLS
• 2018-12-10 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2018-05-21 Listed $209,900 MARMLS
• 2013-09-25 Sold (MLS) $181,500 MARMLS
• 2013-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $181,500 Public Records
• 2013-07-05 Pending — MARMLS
• 2013-05-21 Price Changed $190,000 MARMLS
• 2004-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $2,080,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,412 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.