20236 Graham St · California City, CA 93505

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2008 9,148 sqft lot $150/sqft · at area comps Est $332k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This classic three bedroom, two bathroom house is nestled perfectly on the corner of a quaint neighborhood. This beautiful home has an island in the kitchen that doubles as a bar for seating. The kitchen offers a nice layout with stainless steel appliances, an industrial style sink and faucet, recessed lighting, and a walk in pantry. The living room has light-wash tile and a spacious atmosphere. The laundry room acts as a mudroom with access to the garage. The master bedroom has a walk in closet, beautiful windows, and a ceiling fan. Come check it out today!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Open floor plan
• Large living area

Tags

• CORNER-LOT
• RV PARKING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• ISLAND AND PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: R1 zoning
• Financial info: Single-unit property (1 total unit)
• HOA & community: Urban community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with direct garage access and front entry; RV access/parking; 2 garage/parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector
• Utilities: Electricity on property; Propane available; Public/district water; Septic (septic type unknown)
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Main entry on main level; No common walls
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built information from assessor
• Exterior features: House; Wood fencing; Patio (property has a patio); Corner lot with front and back yard; Level with street

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Granite counters; Gas cooktop and gas range with gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Recirculated exhaust fan; Water heater unit / gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with bathtub and shower-in-tub; Exhaust fans
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Propane heating; Central furnace
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Pantry; Granite counters; Formal entry; Formal dining room; Living room; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hacienda Elementary (528 students, 92% FRL); California City Middle (501 students, 87% FRL); California City High (655 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 704 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,245/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $266k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,491 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,394
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -0.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8313 Redwood Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,202 (-0%)	5mo	$349,900	$159	82
20324 81st St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,073 (-6%)	1mo	$374,500	$181	80
8425 Jacaranda Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,119 (-4%)	23mo	$340,000	$160	54
8545 Satinwood Ave	0.54mi	3/3.5	2,053 (-7%)	10mo	$300,000	$146	49
8412 Catalpa Ave	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,973 (-10%)	2mo	$290,000	$147	48
8412 Redwood Blvd	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,001 (-9%)	19mo	$330,000	$165	46
20373 87TH St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,002 (-9%)	14mo	$405,000	$202	42
20124 84th St	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (-14%)	18mo	$320,000	$168	41
8693 IRONWOOD Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,002 (-9%)	14mo	$386,000	$193	39
20249 AIRWAY Blvd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,951 (-12%)	21mo	$290,000	$149	37
20340 88th St	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,881 (-15%)	7mo	$285,000	$152	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $158,927
• Equity at exit: $297,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $501,470
• Equity at exit: $641,117

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 704
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,848/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $256,648

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-228	-5% $-322	+0% $-415	+5% $-509	+10% $-602
Rent	-10% $-593	-5% $-504	+0% $-415	+5% $-327	+10% $-238
Rate	-1.0pp $-249	-0.5pp $-331	base $-415	+0.5pp $-501	+1.0pp $-588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20300 Graham St California City, CA	4.0	2.5	2016	$2,150	$1.07	25d	1	0.03mi
20425 81st St California City, CA	4.0	3.0	2215	$2,900	$1.31	20d	1	0.21mi
20312 Dean Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,975	$1.13	16d	1	0.43mi
8312 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,900	$1.23	25d	1	0.43mi
8124 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,850	$1.23	25d	1	0.46mi
20673 Medio St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,075	$1.23	25d	1	0.48mi
8173 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,150	$1.45	4d	1	0.48mi
8648 Lime Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,400	$1.64	25d	1	0.52mi
8512 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,875	$1.25	25d	1	0.55mi
8801 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,600	$1.69	25d	1	0.76mi
9000 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	0d	1	0.98mi
8849 Glade Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,380	$1.50	12d	1	1.06mi
7733 Walpole Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	25d	1	1.08mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	25d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $330,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $330,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $330,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $330,000 Active 841-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    historical
19. 2025-11-06
    listed $370,000 Active
20. 2021-02-02
    soldstatus $266,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    This classic three bedroom, two bathroom house is nestled perfectly on the corner of a quaint neighborhood. This beautiful home has an island in the kitchen that doubles as a bar for seating. The kitchen offers a nice layout with stainless steel appliances, an industrial style sink and faucet, recessed lighting, and a walk in pantry. The living room has light-wash tile and a spacious atmosphere. The laundry room acts as a mudroom with access to the garage. The master bedroom has a walk in closet, beautiful windows, and a ceiling fan. Come check it out today!

21. 2021-02-01
    soldstatus $266,000
22. 2020-10-30
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    This classic three bedroom, two bathroom house is nestled perfectly on the corner of a quaint neighborhood. This beautiful home has an island in the kitchen that doubles as a bar for seating. The kitchen offers a nice layout with stainless steel appliances, an industrial style sink and faucet, recessed lighting, and a walk in pantry. The living room has light-wash tile and a spacious atmosphere. The laundry room acts as a mudroom with access to the garage. The master bedroom has a walk in closet, beautiful windows, and a ceiling fan. Come check it out today!

23. 2020-10-07
    listed $279,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    This classic three bedroom, two bathroom house is nestled perfectly on the corner of a quaint neighborhood. This beautiful home has an island in the kitchen that doubles as a bar for seating. The kitchen offers a nice layout with stainless steel appliances, an industrial style sink and faucet, recessed lighting, and a walk in pantry. The living room has light-wash tile and a spacious atmosphere. The laundry room acts as a mudroom with access to the garage. The master bedroom has a walk in closet, beautiful windows, and a ceiling fan. Come check it out today!

24. 2016-05-20
    soldstatus $150,000
25. 2016-05-19
    soldstatus $149,900 Closed
26. 2016-02-22
    status Pending
27. 2015-12-02
    price $149,900
28. 2015-10-09
    listed $159,000 Active
29. 2015-03-27
    historical
30. 2011-08-29
    historical
31. 2011-08-29
    historical
32. 2011-04-15
    listed $22,000
33. 2011-04-15
    listed $22,000
34. 2010-04-05
    listed $29,000
35. 2010-03-31
    historical
36. 2009-10-30
    listed $40,000
37. 2009-03-12
    historical
38. 2008-05-30
    listed $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,848 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,848 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$3,848
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$10,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,629
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+355.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $330,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $370,000 CRMLS
• 2021-02-02 Sold (MLS) $266,000 AVMLS
• 2021-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $266,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2020-10-07 Listed $279,900 AVMLS
• 2016-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-19 Sold (MLS) $149,900 AVMLS
• 2016-02-22 Pending — AVMLS
• 2015-12-02 Price Changed $149,900 AVMLS
• 2015-10-09 Listed $159,000 AVMLS
• 2015-03-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2011-08-29 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2011-08-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-04-15 Listed $22,000 AVMLS
• 2011-04-15 Listed $22,000 CRMLS
• 2010-04-05 Listed $29,000 AVMLS
• 2010-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-10-30 Listed $40,000 CRMLS
• 2009-03-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-05-30 Listed $72,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,848 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.