309 Kensington Pl #195 · Emerald Isle, NC 28570

$899,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,384 sqft · SingleFamily · 230 Days on market

Built 2013 7,841 sqft lot Est $1012k · 11% under $143/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home on the lake for sale in the prestigious Cannonsgate community. Garage floor offers a two-car garage with insulated wallpaper and an epoxy floor, a bedroom, a bathroom and a tv/den room. Next, walk upstairs or better yet, take the elevator which goes to all floors of the home. On the 2nd floor, you will find an open floor plan to the kitchen, Living room and Dining room with a deck overlooking the lake. There is a fireplace in the Living room with many windows for letting in the sunlight. This floor also has a bathroom and a flex room which looks out over the lake in the back of the home. The 3rd floor has three spacious bedrooms and two baths with a private balcony off the

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Lake view
• Flex room

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• ELEVATOR ACCESS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIREPLACE
• FLEX ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On waterfront; Has view; Zoning: Res Pud; Lot dimensions approximately 52 x 153 x 51 x 155 (0.18 acres); Subdivision: Cannonsgate
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (paid annually); Community amenities: clubhouse, gated entry, jogging path, management, tennis courts, sport court, street lights

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car attached garage; Concrete driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Natural gas available and connected; Cable available; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Three or more levels; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation
• Construction: Built with brick veneer, fiber cement and frame construction
• Exterior features: Outdoor shower; Gas grill; Covered deck, patio and porch; Open lot; Lakefront frontage; Private road access; Irrigation system; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Cooling via heat pump
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Ceiling fans; Elevator; Pantry; Insulated windows; Window coverings; Gas log fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($66k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $899k).
• Recommended offer: $791k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 0.1% in Emerald Isle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#401 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bogue Sound Elementary (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B, #168 of 1,410 statewide, top 12%, 467 students, 99% FRL); Broad Creek Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #28 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 710 students, 100% FRL); Croatan High (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A, #73 of 535 statewide, top 13%, 974 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,002/mo this rent would consume 256% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($791k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $791,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.20%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,011,816
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Colleton Sq	0.13mi	4/4.0	3,264 (-4%)	13mo	$1,000,000	$306	73
520 Cannonsgate Dr	0.15mi	4/3.5	3,316 (-2%)	19mo	$899,000	$271	72
220 Colleton Sq	0.14mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,659 (+8%)	2mo	$899,000	$246	69
218 Colleton Sq	0.14mi	4/3.5	3,024 (-11%)	6mo	$904,900	$299	69
224 Back St	0.29mi	4/3.5	3,213 (-5%)	10mo	$1,150,000	$358	67
855 Cannonsgate Dr	0.13mi	4/4.5	3,210 (-5%)	18mo	$997,900	$311	64
307 Oxton Pl	0.30mi	4/4.5	3,035 (-10%)	8mo	$1,250,000	$412	56
603 N Breeze Ct	0.36mi	4/3.0	3,100 (-8%)	23mo	$675,000	$218	50
746 Cannonsgate Dr	0.36mi	5/5.0 (+1)	3,821 (+13%)	0mo	$1,475,000	$386	48
118 Hardwick Ln	0.39mi	4/3.5	3,101 (-8%)	22mo	$875,000	$282	47
758 Cannonsgate Dr	0.31mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,700 (+9%)	14mo	$950,000	$257	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $204,647
• Equity at exit: $134,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $630,173
• Equity at exit: $77,729

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,124 /mo · $13,485/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,150
• Net cashflow: $5,495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,045

Max offer price $899,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $899,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $899,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $899,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $899,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $899,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $899,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $899,000 Active 223 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $899,000 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $899,000 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $899,000 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $899,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $899,000 Active Under Contract 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $899,000 Active Under Contract 213 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $899,000 Active Under Contract 212 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $899,000 Active Under Contract 211 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $899,000 Active Under Contract 210 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-05-03
    price $899,000
19. 2026-04-02
    price $949,000
20. 2025-11-01
    listed $979,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $180,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$13,485
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,402
• − Management: −$14,402
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable income: $55,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,202
• After-tax cash flow: $52,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Emerald Isle

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #15298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $899,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $949,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $979,000 Hive MLS