850 Mustang Ridge Ter · Magnolia, TX 77354

$294,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,526 sqft · Land · 69 Days on market

Built 2025 $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that welcomes you inside. The open great room seamlessly connects to a kitchen equipped with a spacious island for meal prep and gatherings. A versatile den offers additional space for work or relaxation. Enjoy entertaining in the extended covered back patio, which is ideal for outdoor living. Upstairs, the game room provides a dedicated area for fun and leisure. The primary bedroom features a large walk-in closet, offering ample storage and privacy. This thoughtfully designed layout combines comfort and functionality to suit your lifestyle.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Premium lot
• Woodmont cabinetry

Tags

• PREMIUM LOT
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• WOODMONT CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: King Property Management; Annual association fee of $600; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2025; Builder: KB Home
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Backs to greenbelt/park; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level) — 14x19; Bedroom (Second level) — 11x13; Bedroom (Second level) — 10x11
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Solid surface counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Window treatments; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Energy Star qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $212,664 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $129,116
• Equity at exit: $265,755

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $390,678
• Equity at exit: $573,110

Cash invested: $82,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,644

Max offer price $235,870

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-205	-5% $-307	+0% $-409	+5% $-511	+10% $-612
Rent	-10% $-577	-5% $-493	+0% $-409	+5% $-325	+10% $-241
Rate	-1.0pp $-260	-0.5pp $-334	base $-409	+0.5pp $-485	+1.0pp $-563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,749
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $294,995 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,995 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $294,995 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,995 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,995 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,995 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,995 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,995 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,995 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $297,995 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,995 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,995 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,995 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,995 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,995 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    status Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that welcomes you inside. The open great room seamlessly connects to a kitchen equipped with a spacious island for meal prep and gatherings. A versatile den offers additional space for work or relaxation. Enjoy entertaining in the extended covered back patio, which is ideal for outdoor living. Upstairs, the game room provides a dedicated area for fun and leisure. The primary bedroom features a large walk-in closet, offering ample storage and privacy. This thoughtfully designed layout combines comfort and functionality to suit your lifestyle.

17. 2026-05-20
    status Active
18. 2026-04-28
    historical 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that welcomes you inside. The open great room seamlessly connects to a kitchen equipped with a spacious island for meal prep and gatherings. A versatile den offers additional space for work or relaxation. Enjoy entertaining in the extended covered back patio, which is ideal for outdoor living. Upstairs, the game room provides a dedicated area for fun and leisure. The primary bedroom features a large walk-in closet, offering ample storage and privacy. This thoughtfully designed layout combines comfort and functionality to suit your lifestyle.

19. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-23
    price $299,995 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that welcomes you inside. The open great room seamlessly connects to a kitchen equipped with a spacious island for meal prep and gatherings. A versatile den offers additional space for work or relaxation. Enjoy entertaining in the extended covered back patio, which is ideal for outdoor living. Upstairs, the game room provides a dedicated area for fun and leisure. The primary bedroom features a large walk-in closet, offering ample storage and privacy. This thoughtfully designed layout combines comfort and functionality to suit your lifestyle.

21. 2026-04-22
    price $299,995
22. 2026-04-02
    price $300,995 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that welcomes you inside. The open great room seamlessly connects to a kitchen equipped with a spacious island for meal prep and gatherings. A versatile den offers additional space for work or relaxation. Enjoy entertaining in the extended covered back patio, which is ideal for outdoor living. Upstairs, the game room provides a dedicated area for fun and leisure. The primary bedroom features a large walk-in closet, offering ample storage and privacy. This thoughtfully designed layout combines comfort and functionality to suit your lifestyle.

23. 2026-04-01
    price $300,995
24. 2026-03-26
    listed $299,995 Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    This inviting, two-story home showcases a charming front porch that welcomes you inside. The open great room seamlessly connects to a kitchen equipped with a spacious island for meal prep and gatherings. A versatile den offers additional space for work or relaxation. Enjoy entertaining in the extended covered back patio, which is ideal for outdoor living. Upstairs, the game room provides a dedicated area for fun and leisure. The primary bedroom features a large walk-in closet, offering ample storage and privacy. This thoughtfully designed layout combines comfort and functionality to suit your lifestyle.

25. 2026-03-19
    listed $299,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$10,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,441
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $299,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $299,995 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $300,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $300,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $299,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-19 Listed $299,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $144 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.