19253 E Church St · Black Canyon City, AZ 85324

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1956 8,817 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Site-built home on a pretty corner lot! Two bedrooms, one bath, large carport and a large shop. Newer roof, kitchen and exterior siding. Interior is in need of attention. New windows have not been installed but are at property.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Large carport
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEWER ROOF
• LARGE CARPORT
• LARGE SHOP
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic (in and connected)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain-link partial fencing; Desert front and back landscaping; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; No heating (none listed)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 4.9% in Black Canyon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canon Elementary District (4484) (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #294 of 501 in AZ (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canon School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 131 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 65% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Canon Elementary District (4484) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.89%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $100,363
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.27×
• Total profit: $259,430
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85324

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $801/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $801

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $777	-5% $749	+0% $721	+5% $693	+10% $664
Rent	-10% $585	-5% $653	+0% $721	+5% $789	+10% $856
Rate	-1.0pp $771	-0.5pp $746	base $721	+0.5pp $695	+1.0pp $669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $100,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $215,000 Active
19. 2023-06-07
    soldstatus $120,000
20. 1988-11-18
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $801 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $801 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$801
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $6,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canon Elementary District (4484)
• NCES district ID: 0401650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,755
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #12286
• State rank: #294 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Black Canyon City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #21226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Canyon City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.16%
• Current HPI: 417.6032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+437.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $801 · +55.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.