404 Rogers Ave N · Wilson, NC 27893

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1958 6,970 sqft lot Est $223k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Brick Ranch with long-term tenant. Currently rented for $700 per month. Tenant is month to month. Must give 24 hour notice for showings.

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.16 acres; Located in Wilson County; public maintained road access
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story house; Finished above-grade living area of 1,569
• Construction: Brick veneer and frame construction; Built with crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Crawl space basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $120,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$223,366) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.4% in Wilson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#374 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #119 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Hills Middle (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #286 of 475 statewide, top 61%, 670 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 58% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 580 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.15%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,366
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1209 Gold St N	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,540 (-2%)	3mo	$138,500	$90	88
1105 Anderson St NW	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,665 (+6%)	3mo	$277,500	$167	72
185 N Movado Trl	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-10%)	5mo	$279,900	$197	64
806 Vance St N	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,420 (-10%)	2mo	$112,500	$79	60
903 Lee St N	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,711 (+9%)	9mo	$165,000	$96	60
909 Lee St N	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,355 (-14%)	7mo	$137,500	$101	59
1606 Adams St N	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+10%)	2mo	$245,000	$142	59
1121 Vance St N	0.15mi	3/3.0	1,784 (+13%)	8mo	$304,000	$170	58
1607 Branch St NW	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-0%)	11mo	$205,000	$130	54
1003 Branch St NW	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,802 (+15%)	5mo	$249,900	$139	53
1603 Branch St NW	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,722 (+10%)	7mo	$308,000	$179	42
1705 Kenan St NW	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,745 (+11%)	5mo	$265,000	$152	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,551
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $53,554
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27893

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,724/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,042

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $318	+0% $284	+5% $250	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $229	+0% $284	+5% $339	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $315	base $284	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $120,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-04-24
    listed $120,000 Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Brick Ranch with long-term tenant. Currently rented for $700 per month. Tenant is month to month. Must give 24 hour notice for showings.

11. 2026-04-24
    listed $120,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Brick Ranch with long-term tenant. Currently rented for $700 per month. Tenant is month to month. Must give 24 hour notice for showings.

12. 2014-04-08
    soldstatus $1,025,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,724 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,724 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,724
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$381
• After-tax cash flow: $3,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3705020
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,342
• Composite: 32.64/100
• National rank: #5665
• State rank: #119 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #14674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson, NC
• County: Wilson County · 57,967 people
• City population: 57,967
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• Population (ZIP): 38,512
• Household income: $42,810
• Rent vs Own: 55.8% rent · 44.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2175.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,765 people
• By 2030: 82,492 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 81,054 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 78,610 · -5.0%
• By 2075: 71,865 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 62,792 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+2.9 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+7.3 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.54%
• Current HPI: 211.4136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.01%
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-88.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 Hive MLS
• 2014-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $1,025,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,724 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.