1030 E Avenue S Spc 107 · Palmdale, CA 93550

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2002 1,500 sqft lot Est $238k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with a versatile bonus room offering comfort, functionality, and exceptional value! Located in the highly desirable Boulders by the Lake gated community--regulated by the City of Palmdale and known for some of the lowest space lease rates in the Antelope Valley--this is an incredible opportunity for affordable living in a beautifully maintained neighborhood. Inside, you'll find a bright and inviting floor plan with generous living spaces and a thoughtfully designed kitchen featuring a brand-new refrigerator, abundant cabinetry, ample storage, and a dishwasher for added convenience. The home has been lovingly cared fo

Key facts

• Gated community
• Washer and dryer
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• BRAND NEW REFRIGERATOR
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• AMPLE STORAGE
• WASHER AND DRYER
• WINDOW UNIT SWAMP COOLER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Space rent deposit: $3; Manager: Amanda Mortimer (661-273-8154); Label/insignia numbers: PFS765258, PFS765259; Serial number: CAFL208A25776-SHI2; APN: 8950-112-107; Lot listed as 1,500 (source: assessor)
• HOA & community: New space rent listed at $663

Exterior

• Security: Gated/security complex
• Utilities: Individual meters; Natural gas; Cable TV
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home (Park model); Located in space Spc 107; Park name: Boulders By The Lake; All ages community; Porch entry
• Construction: Composition shingle roof (shingles); Manufactured in 2002; Fleetwood Homes (Spring Hill model); Skirted
• Exterior features: Recreation area; Clubhouse/rec room; Community pool; Spa/Hot tub; Security complex

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Window awnings; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 410 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,081/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 4384% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.52%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,804
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1030 E Avenue S #159	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	0mo	$220,000	$153	83
1030 E Avenue S #21	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-9%)	14mo	$195,000	$134	74
1030 E Avenue S #108	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-14%)	8mo	$220,000	$159	71
1030 E Avenue S #16	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	21mo	$215,000	$149	66
1030 Avenue S Spc # #16	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	21mo	$215,000	$149	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $51,326
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $137,935
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93550

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,092/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$647
• Net cashflow: $1,324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1138 E Avenue R7 Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,455	$1.94	13d	1	0.66mi
37414 Drexel St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1452	$2,500	$1.72	1d	1	0.69mi
37058 Alton Dr Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	2078	$7,000	$3.37	1d	1	1.05mi
37938 Palm Vista Ave Unit A Palmdale, CA	3.0	1.0	1223	$2,150	$1.76	1d	1	1.06mi
1715 Boysenberry Way Palmdale, CA	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,900	$1.66	1d	1	1.06mi
239 Katherine Ct Palmdale, CA	3.0	3.0	1386	$2,900	$2.09	1d	1	1.15mi
38225 9th St E Unit 1 Palmdale, CA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	1d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,092 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 25.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,092
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,958
• − Management: −$2,958
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $13,745
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,299
• After-tax cash flow: $12,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,645
• Household income: $62,078
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4384.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 15% Black 14% White 12% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 55% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.38%
• Current HPI: 440.8844
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.76%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $190,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,092 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.