1504 Lynchburg Loop · The Villages, FL 32162

$339,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2005 5,880 sqft lot Est $360k · 6% under $199/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TURNKEY Custom Whispering Pine | Bond Paid | Prime Location Near Lake Sumter Landing Welcome to this beautifully maintained Custom Whispering Pine featuring a spacious, open floor plan designed for comfortable Florida living. The heart of the home is the huge open kitchen with abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and seamless flow into the main living and dining areas—perfect for entertaining. This thoughtfully designed home offers 2 bedrooms plus a den, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, providing flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Enjoy outdoor living with an enclosed lanai and a charming front paver patio, ideal for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings. M

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Abundant cabinetry
• Front paver patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE OPEN KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• FRONT PAVER PATIO
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey/furnished; No home warranty; No lease restrictions reported
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees reported; Total annual association fees reported
• HOA & community: Association amenities include fitness center, pool, golf, park, tennis and racquetball courts, shuffleboard, and owned recreation facilities; Deed-restricted, senior community; Pets allowed; Association fees billed monthly and annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (24 x 20)
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available and connected; BB/HS internet available; Fire hydrant on property
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Model: Whispering Pine; Faces east; Residential zoning (R-1)
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a development (CDD)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Paved roads; Near public transit; Property located in county

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 553 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,814/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,364 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
298 Society Hill Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,488 (0%)	2mo	$357,000	$240	80
454 Bishopville Loop	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,488 (0%)	1mo	$360,000	$242	78
485 Mallory Hill Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+3%)	2mo	$365,000	$239	78
1697 Jardin Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+2%)	1mo	$394,000	$261	72
1258 Estill Ave	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,505 (+1%)	2mo	$335,000	$223	68
497 Little River Path	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+5%)	1mo	$374,714	$239	68
607 Reevesville Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+13%)	2mo	$400,000	$237	67
1178 Mcbee Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-6%)	2mo	$399,000	$286	62
978 Smyrna St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-6%)	2mo	$342,000	$245	58
1116 Elizabeth Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+8%)	2mo	$575,000	$359	55
952 Talapia Loop	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+15%)	1mo	$355,000	$207	40
1007 Rockville Pl	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (-14%)	2mo	$315,000	$246	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-65,817
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-63,272
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,732/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,081

Max offer price $302,563

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-115	+0% $-211	+5% $-308	+10% $-404
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-322	+0% $-211	+5% $-100	+10% $11
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-125	base $-211	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1009 Ridgeville Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,475	$2.08	23d	1	0.67mi
1240 Pageland Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	23d	1	0.70mi
1315 Fort Lawn Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1392	$4,500	$3.23	23d	1	0.77mi
445 Corbett Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,700	$2.45	23d	1	0.83mi
470 Oboe Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,200	$1.77	23d	1	0.95mi
1220 Turtle Island Rd Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	26d	1	1.26mi
731 Baisley Trl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1512	$4,500	$2.98	23d	1	1.26mi
10840 NE 89th Dr The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,924	$2.09	23d	21	1.27mi
2014 Johnson Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	23d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $339,900 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $339,900 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $339,900 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,900 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,900 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,900 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,900 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $339,900 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $349,900 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,900 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $349,900
19. 2026-04-23
    price $354,900
20. 2026-02-23
    price $359,900
21. 2026-02-11
    listed $369,900 Active
22. 2024-12-18
    soldstatus $380,000
23. 2020-12-09
    soldstatus $289,900
24. 2007-07-28
    historical
25. 2007-07-08
    listed $269,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,732 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,732 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$3,732
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,701
• − Management: −$2,701
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$8,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,013
• After-tax cash flow: $-524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+29.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $349,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $354,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $359,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $369,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $289,900 Public Records
• 2007-07-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-08 Listed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,732 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.