37438 Ray Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$69,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1972 4,723 sqft lot Est $80k · 13% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a split bedroom floor plan and an open-concept layout with a central kitchen, dining area, and living room addition. It boasts a welcoming covered front porch with a sliding glass door and an additional enclosed, raised screen porch with vinyl windows and its own entry door. Inside, you'll find updated laminate flooring throughout, a cozy front bedroom with a built-in dresser, closet, and en-suite bathroom with a walk-in shower. The spacious primary bedroom includes a built-in dresser flanked by dual closets and features an additional closet for extra storage space and is conveniently located near the hall bathroom. All furnishings an

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Central kitchen
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTRAL KITCHEN
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED RAISED SCREEN PORCH
• UPDATED LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey furnished; Public records list living area as 832 sq ft and building area as 1,386 sq ft; Direction the home faces: North
• Financial info: Total annual fees $200; Total monthly fees $16.67
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Chuck DeHaven) with required annual fee; HOA fee $200 annually (approx. $16.67/month); Community clubhouse; Shuffleboard court; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Golf carts allowed; Buyer approval required; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; Carport (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; 1 septic system
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single wide; One story; North-facing entry; Completed condition
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in (completed)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Front porch; Side porch; Awnings; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Shed(s); Landscaped grounds; Near public transit; Paved lot; Asphalt road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Window treatments; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Split bedroom layout; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.68%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,968
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37113 Lois Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	3mo	$75,000	$112	74
37137 Lois Ave	0.39mi	2/1.5	684 (+2%)	4mo	$66,000	$96	74
5241 Bolton Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	6mo	$80,000	$119	74
4833 Royal Palm Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	2mo	$78,000	$116	72
37112 Sandra Ave	0.43mi	2/1.5	664 (-1%)	8mo	$70,000	$105	69
37031 Karen Ave	0.48mi	2/1.5	720 (+7%)	1mo	$92,000	$128	63
37020 Lois Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	624 (-7%)	2mo	$73,000	$117	59
37302 Carol Ave	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	684 (+2%)	7mo	$55,000	$80	58
5400 Amanda St	0.66mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	8mo	$105,000	$156	58
37042 Lois Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	748 (+11%)	8mo	$95,000	$127	53
4550 Olive Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	720 (+7%)	1mo	$97,000	$135	53
5251 Flint St	0.45mi	2/1.0	600 (-11%)	8mo	$125,000	$208	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $20,811
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $49,489
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $619

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	0.48mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	21d	1	0.57mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.60mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	24d	1	0.66mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	16d	1	0.84mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	24d	1	0.94mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	0.99mi
4412 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	24d	1	1.00mi
4410 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	24d	1	1.00mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	1.06mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	1.06mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	16d	1	1.06mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	1.07mi
5426 8th St #1 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,150	$2.66	24d	1	1.11mi
4352 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$1,100	$2.23	24d	1	1.13mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	24d	1	1.39mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	1d	142	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,900 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 212 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 211 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 209 DOM
14. 2025-11-03
    listed $69,900 Active
15. 2025-09-30
    historical
16. 2025-01-06
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,449
• After-tax cash flow: $5,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $928 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.