423 Paradise Ln · Conroe, TX 77356

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1981 0.35 ac lot $115/sqft · 25% below area Est $260k · 25% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this fantastic investment opportunity situated on two spacious lots. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is full of potential and ready for the right buyer to bring it back to life. Located in a serene, established neighborhood, the property offers a great blend of classic character and opportunity. The home will need some foundation work, along with general TLC and interior refreshing, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value. The HVAC system is just a few years old. Residents enjoy access to a private boat ramp to Lake Conroe, as well as a neighborhood pool, park and clubhouse.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($327/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1073 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $195k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,427
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -25.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17808 Mill Manor Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-0%)	1mo	$276,640	$164	71
958 Lake View Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+7%)	1mo	$279,900	$155	70
17792 Mill Manor Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-0%)	1mo	$297,140	$176	70
306 Lazy Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+2%)	2mo	$280,000	$162	70
17783 Mill Manor Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-0%)	1mo	$297,640	$176	69
10414 Enchanted	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-10%)	1mo	$224,900	$148	68
17921 Stone Terrace Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-0%)	1mo	$249,290	$148	65
18444 Sunrise Maple Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-7%)	2mo	$229,000	$146	60
1130 Lake View Dr	0.63mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,731 (+2%)	0mo	$495,000	$286	59
18439 Sunrise Oaks Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,876 (+11%)	1mo	$214,900	$115	55
212 Raine Manor Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,831 (+8%)	1mo	$314,020	$172	52
221 Raine Manor Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,831 (+8%)	0mo	$264,520	$144	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-35,456
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-50,227
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1073
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,468/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,919

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $82	+0% $27	+5% $-28	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-50	+0% $27	+5% $104	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $77	base $27	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
607 Lake View Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,499	$1.25	46d	1	0.18mi
18436 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$2,200	$1.13	46d	1	0.48mi
18490 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1976	$1,731	$0.88	15d	1	0.54mi
18544 Meadow Point Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,950	$1.33	46d	1	0.64mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	46d	1	0.83mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	26d	1	1.20mi
9913 Crescent Cove Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1805	$1,899	$1.05	0d	35	1.27mi
47 Presidio Rd Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	2059	$2,300	$1.12	15d	1	1.29mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	46d	1	1.39mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	46d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $195,000 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Welcome to this fantastic investment opportunity situated on two spacious lots. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is full of potential and ready for the right buyer to bring it back to life. Located in a serene, established neighborhood, the property offers a great blend of classic character and opportunity. The home will need some foundation work, along with general TLC and interior refreshing, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value. The HVAC system is just a few years old. Residents enjoy access to a private boat ramp to Lake Conroe, as well as a neighborhood pool, park and clubhouse.

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $202,000 Active 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Welcome to this fantastic investment opportunity situated on two spacious lots. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is full of potential and ready for the right buyer to bring it back to life. Located in a serene, established neighborhood, the property offers a great blend of classic character and opportunity. The home will need some foundation work, along with general TLC and interior refreshing, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize and add value. The HVAC system is just a few years old. Residents enjoy access to a private boat ramp to Lake Conroe, as well as a neighborhood pool, park and clubhouse.

19. 2025-11-30
    historical
20. 2025-08-31
    status Active
21. 2025-08-24
    status Pending
22. 2025-08-11
    listed $202,000 Active
23. 2025-08-11
    historical
24. 2025-07-22
    price $202,000
25. 2025-07-01
    price $207,000
26. 2025-06-03
    price $215,000
27. 2025-04-03
    listed $223,400 Active
28. 1999-03-23
    soldstatus
29. 1995-05-30
    soldstatus $100,508

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,468 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,468 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,468
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$678
• After-tax cash flow: $1,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+94.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $202,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $202,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $202,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $207,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $223,400 HARMLS
• 1999-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,508 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,468 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.