495 East St · New Haven, CT 06511

$1,800

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 3,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in the Mill River Neighborhood directly across from Jocelyn Square Park - 2 Family consisting of 1512 sq ft [ 2 - 2 bedroom 1 bath Apartments = 756 sq ft each] ; 2nd Floor - Electric Service Upgrade in 2018 - Rent Range w/in 1/2 mile $1,400 - $1,800 for similar sized units - Good upside potential Property offered in As Is Condition - Inspections are for information purposes only.

Key facts

• New tile flooring
• Jocelyn square park
• Gas oven stove

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR APARTMENT
• JOCELYN SQUARE PARK
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• GAS OVEN STOVE
• NEW TILE FLOORING
• LARGE SHARED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Natural gas domestic hot water
• Home design: Multi-family (2-family); Multi-family for sale
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Natural gas heat
• Interior features: Full basement; 4 total rooms

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $1,800 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$281,232) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $2k).
• Cap rate 1724.7% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,279/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $504 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 182.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 1724.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 6137.14%
• DSCR: 274.07
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,232
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Humphrey St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	13mo	$200,000	$128	80
38 Walnut St	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,330 (-12%)	2mo	$345,000	$259	75
387 Blatchley Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,516 (+0%)	4mo	$300,000	$198	74
249 Wallace St	0.10mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,515 (+0%)	19mo	$300,000	$198	74
354 Blatchley Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	5mo	$280,000	$182	72
17 Walnut St	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,628 (+8%)	20mo	$270,000	$166	67
263 James St	0.37mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+3%)	22mo	$290,000	$186	55
308 Poplar St	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	4mo	$310,000	$224	54
187 Saltonstall Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (+6%)	4mo	$285,000	$179	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 323.64×
• Total profit: $162,612
• Equity at exit: $268

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 691.17×
• Total profit: $347,844
• Equity at exit: $156

Cash invested: $504 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,279 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2 /mo · $27/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $2,578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16

Max offer price $1,800

Occupancy floor 16%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $450
• Closing costs: $54
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 State St #2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.5	1950	$3,750	$1.92	23d	1	0.18mi
28 Edwards St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,850	$2.14	14d	1	0.23mi
47 Edwards St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1170	$2,200	$1.88	43d	1	0.27mi
31 Clark St New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1694	$4,200	$2.48	3d	1	0.27mi
1050 State St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$4,854	$5.28	2d	21	0.28mi
59 Clark St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1541	$3,250	$2.11	23d	1	0.33mi
86 Edwards St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1080	$4,500	$4.17	43d	1	0.33mi
54 Mechanic St Unit 2nd floor New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1412	$3,600	$2.55	43d	1	0.33mi
60 Mechanic St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1050	$3,195	$3.04	43d	1	0.34mi
74 Mechanic St Unit 1L New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,095	$1.90	14d	1	0.37mi
106 Lawrence St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,295	$2.75	43d	1	0.39mi
28 Eld St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	3d	1	0.41mi
20 Maltby Pl New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	3d	1	0.43mi
262 Lloyd St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,400	$1.64	3d	1	0.47mi
506 Orange St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.5	1553	$3,600	$2.32	43d	1	0.48mi
48 Lyon St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1402	$2,950	$2.10	19d	1	0.50mi
426 Poplar St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1658	$1,800	$1.09	43d	1	0.55mi
426 Poplar St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1405	$1,800	$1.28	2d	1	0.55mi
342 Exchange St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	43d	1	0.55mi
399 Orange St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1650	$3,200	$1.94	11d	1	0.56mi
239 Bradley St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1384	$3,500	$2.53	43d	1	0.56mi
239 Bradley St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1982	$3,650	$1.84	43d	1	0.56mi
751 Orange St Unit 1ST New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1344	$3,200	$2.38	43d	1	0.56mi
751 Orange St Unit 2nd floor New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1090	$3,000	$2.75	43d	1	0.56mi
395 Orange St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1650	$3,000	$1.82	43d	1	0.56mi
239 Saint John St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1350	$3,295	$2.44	43d	1	0.58mi
367 Orange St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$4,973	$4.63	2d	43	0.59mi
302 Exchange St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	43d	1	0.60mi
54 Trumbull St Unit 54-1 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.5	2250	$6,695	$2.98	14d	1	0.61mi
245 Edwards St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	43d	1	0.63mi
67 Trumbull St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1400	$3,200	$2.29	11d	1	0.64mi
251 Edwards St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1522	$3,900	$2.56	3d	1	0.64mi
441 Chapel St Unit 2A1 (shared) New Haven, CT	4.0	4.0	2151	$3,600	$1.67	2d	1	0.65mi
250 Willow St #3 New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1234	$3,600	$2.92	3d	1	0.66mi
483 Ferry St #1 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1100	$2,310	$2.10	43d	1	0.66mi
253 Lawrence St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,000	$2.31	43d	1	0.68mi
641 Ferry St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	43d	1	0.68mi
18 Woolsey St New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1446	$2,900	$2.01	11d	1	0.68mi
68 Anderson St Unit A New Haven, CT	3.0	2.5	1693	$4,500	$2.66	43d	1	0.72mi
114 Canner St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.5	1382	$3,750	$2.71	23d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,800 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 367-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $1,800 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$101
• − Property taxes: −$27
• − Insurance: −$9
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,147
• − Management: −$3,147
• − Depreciation: −$52
• Taxable income: $32,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,886
• After-tax cash flow: $23,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-91.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $1,800 Smart MLS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) $282,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-01-22 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2023-11-18 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2023-09-07 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2023-07-10 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2023-06-29 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2023-05-22 Listed $280,000 Smart MLS
• 2014-12-08 Sold (MLS) $92,000 Smart MLS
• 2014-04-04 Listed $69,900 Smart MLS
• 2008-03-31 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2007-12-19 Listed $185,900 Smart MLS
• 1997-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,364 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.